John Linton .....as viewed by Telstra?
If you read this brief article:
http://www.itnews.com.au/News/280919,telstra-plans-national-cable-upgrade.aspx
you would have to wonder why Telstra would be doing such a thing if they actually believed that NBNCo would survive beyond any future change of government. There are obvious reasons why a current fibre network would need to be enhanced - because current customers would need more capacities and facilities - but the question remains - why do it now?
If there is a change of federal government within the next two years then, barring a massive change of heart by the Australian electorate the bunch of doctrinaire morons currently feeding from the trough will be replaced by some other mob who have made it clear, at least currently, that they will scrap the current misadventure and do 'something else'. Having a government communications company makes as much sense in the 21st century as having a government run car manufacturing company - for all the same reasons. However, having a privately run company running a government funded and controlled communications company doesn't make that much more sense.....but that appears to be the only alternative.
My, once across lightly, view is that Malcolm Turbull (either as PM or Minister For The Whatever It Is Going To Be Called At The Time) will simply call a halt to the 'NBN2' roll out and then 'sell' whatever has been installed by that time (in reality not very much) to Telstra, or if both parties were really brave and the $Sing had not self destructed by then, to Optus via a 'tender' process that included some non binding commitments to do something or other in the future. Though the betting would heavily favor Telstra. This would be done after the 'new government' releases an audit of the 'NBN2' showing that the costs have blown out and that it could never be made to work financially nor operationally - and have no doubt a 'new government' could spin that line very, very effectively by simply telling the truth - if they actually could understand what that word means. The current claims and lies by the current 'government' compared to the then factual situation would be sufficient to ridicule the whole concept.
So, one of the issues about the future of telecommunications in Australia is what the combination of Krudd's arrogant stupidity and Ms Faustus 'rabbit frozen in the headlights' stupidities have actually done to what Australian telecommunications users will have available to them over the coming years and who will be providing it? Despite the Labor rhetoric, that is very far from clear and is, almost certainly, not going to be a government operated national fibre network. What it is, most likely, going to be is a reversion to some version of Telecom Australia (not Telstra) in a pre-1991 version with a genuine (and I hesitate to use that word) wholesale split. Despite any view to the contrary, Australia can't afford to have more than one fixed 'wire' telecommunications provider and the only viable way of achieving that is NOT to tax payer fund another national carrier...simple financial modeling insists that is the case.
So, in my opinion, Telstra Mark II will come into being within 12 months of a possible change of government with a 'controlled' pricing regime that will control whatever the 'NBN2' has become by that time.Telstra will control the network and the new and subsequent Federal governments will control the pricing. Everyone will be happy because Telstra will run the operation much more efficiently than a cobbled together new operator and the pricing will be not as expensive as it would have been if the Federal government remained trying to operate a huge commercial business.
Pity it's going to remain a total shambles until that, or something like that, happens.
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