John Linton .....pretty much as expected and not 'good news' for 'NBN2' proponents.
I looked at the ABS latest report yesterday which contained no surprises:
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/8153.0/
ADSL broadband users 'increased' around 68,000 while wireless broadband users increased around a little over 600,000 and continued to 'close the gap' to less than 800,000 between ADSL and wireless users (4,246,000 - 3,455,000). The ABS revised many of their figures in the previous report but none that made any real difference - except for something I will reference later on. So no surprises - ADSL continues to shrink in terms of percentage of in use services and wireless continues to grow though despite the increase in the number of wireless users the reported usage was actually lower than on the previous report. However, it must always be borne in mind that the base figures are reported by ISPs themselves and, apart from Exetel's which I know are accurate, I would have little faith in the accuracy of the other companies that report. However they are the only real guide anyone has to the overall trends in the marketplace (outside their own numbers of course).
The growth in wireless users is an indication of the amazingly fast take up of that service - from zero to 3.5 million in less than four years and makes it the most successful 'data technology' of all time - at least to date which you must always add when talking about any technology product. What will happen over the coming year is not possible for me to comment on as I have no idea about what will happen on pricing and speed beyond what is available to anyone who reads the industry media which, while seldom being reliable, contains the obvious media releases from the mobile network carriers. The growth over the last six months was slower than the previous six months but the yearly 'add' of more around 1,500,000 users compared to less than 75,000 ADSL services shows a 20:1 take up differential.
The 'growth' in ADSL connections as reported by the ABS was surprising but could almost certainly be explained by the decision by the ABS to include 99 very small and 166 small ISPs in this survey whereas they weren't included in the previous two surveys. As those ISPs have to have a minimum of 100 subscribers each it would mean that the number of ADSL users reported by the ISPs included in the previous survey didn't increase at all but fell by some unknown number; but likely to be up to 50,000 (rather than a 68,000 rise). Given the 'rubberyness' of the statistics it isn't possible to form any definitive conclusions but the trend is becoming clearer.....it also confirms the figures reported in the Telstra annual report that noted the increase in residences that do not have a PSTN line connected.
If you read the media you might have noticed one of Stupid Stephen's more ridiculous claims for the 'NBN2'. He said "The take up of 'NBN2' connections will be 100% by current ADSL users because Telstra will rip out the PSTN copper as the new fibre connections are activated" Mao Tse Tung or Pol Pot couldn't have said it better. It was as stupid as Mike Quigley's statement around the same time that "It's very important to the 'NBN2' that people continue to use a telephone service once they connect to the 'NBN2'". If those are two of the assumptions in the unannounced 'business case' for an 'NBN2' then someone isn't really 'following the conductor'.
What percentage of Australian residential users will be using any sort of carrier telephone service other than VoIP in five years time?
What percentage of Australian residential premises will even have any form of telephone line in five years time?
Personally, I don't know, but I am willing to bet it won't be "100%" of the current number of lines in use today.
But then I didn't make a decision to spend billions, possibly tens of billions, of borrowed dollars based on a political stunt to hide my idiocy.
Statistics may very well be worse than "damned lies" but facts remain inconvenient to people who either choose to ignore them or don't even know where to find them.
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