Thursday, January 14. 2010Wireless Broadband - As "Unworrying" To The NBN2.......John Linton
I was thinking about the ACMA numbers I cited yesterday in this article: http://www.acma.gov.au/WEB/STANDARD/pc=PC_312017 and considered what the ABS figures would show for the period ended 31/12/09 when they get around to producing them (as far as I know they haven't yet asked for the data for that six month period yet - but I could be wrong). The ACMA data is already six months old and is only the ABS data published in a slightly different form so is not helpful in adding to the knowledge of the wireless and other markets. As far as I can tell from various public comments by Telstra and 'private' comments by Optus and Vodafone their wireless take up was much faster over the last six months of 2009 than the 162% reported by ACMA for the previous twelve months with Telstra saying it now had over 2 million wireless connections and the vaguer comments by the other two carriers indicating that the total of wireless connections must be approaching 3 million which, if true, is an extraordinary technology take up rate - by far the fastest Australia has ever seen. Exetel's wireless broadband sales are running at around 300% of what they were in January 2009 but that is from a very small base so is no of any significance to 'trends'. Wireless broadband for me is like VoIP - I don't even consider what I am using when I use my notebook just as I don't give a second thought to the fact that my calls to and from Exetel's offices in North Sydney and Colombo, to and from my mobile and to and from my home are all VoIP. It's just technology that I use to do my work and provides information about whatever I need at any time. I don't think the speed I get (around 1.5 mbps) or the cost of $20 or so dollars a month is any sort of issue for my business and personal use and I think that view is held by a larger and larger percentage of broadband users.....at least the information published seems to indicate that's the case. Which leads me to wonder how typical, or untypical, I am in terms of internet use. As an Exetel user I am definitely in the lower 50% of down loaders who don't down load video content from the web and don't play on line games. But I am, as are the other 50% of Exetel's users, a person whose internet uses aren't going to change dramatically over the next few years - I will remain a mainly business user with some leisure use all of which is non-video and not even audio. I suspect that apart from teenagers (whose internet is paid for by their parents) and 10% - 20% or so of the adult population most internet users neither need higher speeds than wireless does and will deliver nor do they need more downloads than are and will be affordable. They will buy at a price point that suits their individual life circumstances with the continuing major consideration being 'affordable cost' (whatever that means in each individual's then current circumstances). If these suppositions are anything like correct then it's going to be a pretty hard sell for ANY broadband service over $50.00 a month because wireless is already demonstrating that unless you need high downloads then the widening gap between the cost of wireless and the cost of wire line broadband services is beginning to become more and more apparent. The NBN2 was dreamed up by a total wanker (Krudd) who had and has less than zero knowledge about telecommunications based on summary/key point 'briefing papers' done on the fly by pretty average civil servants. 'Listening' to the frantic rationalisations since the announcement that "no Australian working family will live without 100 mbps internet by the next date I come up with" it has become apparent that the people trying to justify the need for an NBN2 (at any cost let alone at an affordable one) are fumbling in denial that mobile telephony (will remove the need for any sort of telephone service other than mobile for the overwhelming majority of users) and that wireless internet will meet the needs of some very large percentage of current ADSL users leaving the 'market' for a super fast service with a much less number of likely subscribers than even the most pessimistic of real people would have estimated. There's no point in maundering on about needs for high speed medical services and the like - they can be, and already have been, delivered by commercial fibre. No point in saying 'cost/benefit' of a combined residential data/telephony service - a rapidly growing number of people no longer use a fixed connection for their telephone calls and won't go back to one. No point in trying to say that on demand video will become universal - it already is and the studios, and Rupert Murdoch determine who delivers their content not a moon faced moron in the far away Southern Oceans trying to get himself re-elected to an insignificant sinecure in an insignificant country. Krudd is playing the Kevin Costner part in his very own version of Field Of Dreams (build an NBN2 and they will come!!!). I think his problem is that he's mistaking that stream of lights coming up Parliament Hill as headlights of cars bearing punters coming to fill the bleachers rather than the torches of the peasants from quite another movie coming to burn him and his pretentious posturing to death. The current apparent plateauing of ADSL, or even its decline, is an indication clearer than any Krudd nonsense that the new primary driver for data is mobility not download speed or download allowance - at least it is for a growing number of internet users who will be unlikely to ever consider an NBN2. Trackbacks
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New telstra plans out John;
http://www.telstra.com.au/abouttelstra/media/wireless-broadband-plans.cfm Comments (2)
Read about these this morning. Great if you cannot get coverage from another provider (more than a few places I've been where voda/optus has been spotty at best). For most people however its still overpriced.
Personally I am wondering what effect the upcoming spectrum sell off will have on the wireless broadband landscape. All up Telstra is the one who could easiest afford a large chunk tightening their hold, but would be good to see other players get their hands on some and do something. Comments (2)
Very true regarding Telstra's ability to purchase the spectrum, that being said it really depends on how negotiations progress with the government regarding the NBN.
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Just thought I'd share one customers perspective on the 3G surge.
My father (in his 70's) was on the basic Tel$tra 200mb Cable Contract until 2008. At the beginning 200mb was far more than he needed. But towards the end he found he had to limit his usage so he would not go over the 200mb allowance. In March 2008 he moved to a 24 month 3G service from '3' $29/m for 2gb with a free modem (same as he paid to Tel$tra for 200mb). He lives in Bondi Junction (dense population), and was not happy with the service for the first few months as the drop in speed was huge. It felt like he was back on 1990's dial-up again. This improved slightly after 3 put a new tower in, but now in the last 6 months of his contract the bandwidth is so variable that he intends to go back to a fixed wire product (probably ADSL2) in March when the contract expires. 3G suffers from the same issue of shared bandwidth that cable has, and each evening the service runs very slowly as the cells become saturated. From comments I have seen about other providers 3 is not alone in this issue. He is what I would call a basic user, and one that should be ideal for 3G home use and should have been able to drop the copper. He still uses under 1Gb a month, but does like visiting links to youtube etc so needs sufficient bandwidth to make his experience enjoyable. If 3G is going to remain a serious option for home internet, there needs to be massive investment in additional cells and backhaul so people stay with 3G beyond their contracts. I guess one benefit might be that if families move back to wire based technologies some will still keep 3g for mobile computing giving 2 revenue streams from one customer for the ISP's Peter. Comment (1)
I agree that can be an issue with wireless broadband at this stage of its roll out.
I remember the same thing with mobile telephony. I think it, like mobile telephony, will resolve over time as user density grows and technologies change. Comments (6)
Although the majority of heavy downloaders today are probably illegally copying movies, TV, music and so forth do you think at some point the introduction of either free or reasonably priced legal alternatives will eventually drive the average consumer price point upwards?
Consider that cable TV viewers are paying somewhere between $50 and $100/month for their current subscription services. If suitable legal alternatives were offered online it seems sensible that folks would be both interested in willing to pay for higher bandwidth & quota. Comment (1)
Living in my 'sheltered world' I actually haven't looked at the cost of a Foxtel subscription since I signed up for it in the early days so I hadn't appreciated that the price per month had gone up over the past decade or so.
Irrespective of the cost I don't think it is going to stop internet theft unless their is an Australia wide epidemic of morality flu in the near future. The solution is in the hands of the producers to find ways to stop criminals stealing their property or as some are now saying fix the problem by not producing any property. The current Tivo example expects the service provider to pay for the distribution of a paid for title range which is not going to work long term. I don't know how to address the issue and am glad I don't have the problem. Comments (6)
How many of those heavy downloaders are like me,downloading Steam games and gaming, yet lumped with downloaders of illegally obtained material? (Average about 80gb a month lately easily.)
I tend to agree that reasonably priced content will possibly lessen illegal downloads, but that will not stop the content producers/owners crying foul as they currently do. Get $$ from digital downloads and not from physical product apparently = loss because sales of physical product are down. The whole set of metrics used to gauge illegal downloads IMO are flawed/skewed to show a higher pecrentage in favour of big content. Note: I am not saying illegal downloaders are not an issue, nor that it isn't theft. Just that its not all as it is displayed, nor that all heavy downloaders are downloading illegal material. Comments (2)
There are many legal ways to watch lots of TV take a look at the NBC website or the HULU website. Just because you use alot of download quota doesn't make you a theif. A problem with Exetel is to get the most offpeak quota you need to be on the cheapest plan. Go figure. Now if we could choose our offpeak times....
On topic again... My brother lives in KL and basically all they have is wireless. Copper internet is mostly unheard of. Ron Comment (1)
I think that internet games and movie/TV downloads are a greater threat than heroin to the future of Australia and for Krudd to attempt to take tax payers money to destroy the future youth of Australia ranks that moon faced moronic tosser ahead of Pol Pot as the destroyer of a nation in a brief number of years.
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Rudd ahead of Pol Pot? Really? Just think about what you said there for a minute...
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I always think about what I write.
A relatively low percentage of people who comment on what I read bother to do the same. Comments (6)
Like the same way we never would need more than 640k of ram?
Currently, sure, we only really need 5-10mbit/s. But plans for the future include all of our media arriving via the internet. So having two FullHD streams for people watching TV plus audio streams for people on the phone plus 10mbit/s for your average internet user. 100mbit/s doesn't seem as over the top anymore. Comment (1)
Exactly. The demand might not be here now (I would say it is, but the pricing in Australia is too high) but this is about preparing for the future.
If you look at the USA, there are plenty of sites where you can legally watch HD movies and TV shows. I would really like to know why we have a free-trade aggreement with the US, but when we visit these sites it says "Sorry this content is not available in your location"... The content distributors here will eventually have to offer something similar here, and when they do, we should be ready. And on top of this, how do we know that there won't be some new Internet technology which comes along in the future which chews up even more bandwidth? Comment (1)
Seems zdnet and whirlpool are continuing to assist you with brand exposure....
http://www.zdnet.com.au/news/communications/soa/Exetel-on-ACMA-No-demand-for-100Mbps/0,130061791,339300432,00.htm http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies.cfm?t=1363186&p=-2 Comment (1)
When I first read the rationales for bothering to write a blog both papers claimed that additional media exposure was one of the 8 main benefits.
Over the last 2+ years of writing a daily blog that has certainly proved to be true. Comments (6)
I must say Australia Broadband is not all that great compared to other countries from what I’ve read and know about it (admittedly I’m not in the industry and don’t know every technology and how it works...etc..etc). Having said that after taking a trip to Korea... Now that was an eye opener, They have had fibre internet for YEARS and I believe might be the world leaders perhaps (was very impressive speed wise and internet content wise from what some locals where showing me.
I think Korea is a prime example of when you have good bandwidth available (As we don't in Australia yet for a decent price) you will start to get much better services and a wider range of services available, such as streaming HDTV, much more interactive and workable web pages and content, companies can be far more productive at a much lower price..etc..etc. How anyone can say no one wants better speeds is beyond me, I think everyone would love as much speed as they can get as long as the price is decent and not over the top like allot of internet prices are in Australia! Korea is currently upgrading its fibre network that’s served them well at 100MB for years already and is moving to a 1GB fibre network I believe. Korea has already found that in some cases 100MB can be limiting for streaming the new services they are launching and about to launch in the near future so I would say for a country that seems to be leading edge with Internet connectivity perhaps Australia should have spend a bit more time learning from Korea on what mistakes they made and what they believe the future is (I think it is fibre myself and bandwidth is massive and does not have the issues copper does). I don’t think Australia is in much of a position to say what will and will not work when we don’t have much experience or knowledge on the matter (clearly in our current governments case as you have already mentioned). As for the crazy bill attached to a fibre network I agree it’s a little crazy and I think our major telco’s have let us down as it should have been there job to start building a network with the crazy revenue and profits they have posted over the many years and all we have is a useless copper network you can’t even get ADSL on any more... It took me 2-3 MONTHS to get an ADSL-1 connection as Telstra automatically connect everyone on a Peer gain system even if there is full copper lines available and there solution to any call you make is ‘try our wireless’ which brings me to your other point of massive increase of sales... this is mainly due to their marketing and blocking of other technologies such as: - Cable (not much coverage any more) - ADSL (VERY difficult to get connected due to Telstra always connecting over a shared line) So what are you left with Wireless and EVERYONE I know on wireless is not happy with it and wishes they could get ADSL or Cable. I fought with the TIO for about 3-6 months and have since managed to get an ADSL2+ connection but Telstra was pushing me for Wireless the whole time... If I did not know any better I would have ended up with wireless like many of my famly and friend have and are all unhappy with the speed, download limits and reliability of the connections (EVERY ONE OF THEM IS!) and they not just using the same carrier either! Just my 2cents worth! Comment (1)
Though wireless broadband is quite expensive but I like mobility so I can always prefer wireless broadband.
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