John Linton
....made all the more confusing by Krudd and co who don't have the slightest idea about any aspect of telecommunications.
Personally I don't give any thought to the Krudd 'NBN2' face saving stunt beyond occasionally speculating on what, if any, effect it will have on Telstra and therefore Telstra's wholesale decisions as the next few years grind on and the current lies become more and more exposed. As you may, or more probably because why would you care, may not know there have been ongoing machinations in the USA regarding telecommunications infrastructure 'commitments' in the USA and various large carriers have made submissions to the committees responsible for the direction of telecommunications in the USA. A colleague sent me this yesterday:
http://www.betanews.com/article/ATT-The-end-of-the-wireline-telephone-is-in-sight/1262297110
which gives an insight into the current problems in that country of the 'wind down' of their gigantic PSTN and its replacement by newer technologies. If you can't be bothered to read the whole article (or in much more detail the link to the actual submission let me at least recommend that you read the reply (3rd down at the time of writing) by "telcoguy' and this exerpt contains the raw details which the article addresses:
"The numbers speak for themselves. Today, less than 20% of Americans
rely exclusively on POTS for voice service. Approximately 25% of
households have abandoned POTS altogether, and another 700,000 lines
are being cut every month. From 2000 to 2008, the number of
residential switched access lines has fallen by almost half, from 139
million to 75 million. Non-primary residential lines have fallen by 62%
over the same period; with the rise of broadband, few customers still
need a second phone line for dial-up Internet service. Total interstate
and intrastate switched access minutes have fallen by a staggering 42%
from 2000 through 2008. Indeed, perhaps the clearest sign of the
transformation away from POTS and towards a broadband future is that
there are probably now more broadband connections than telephone lines
in the United States"
These declines represent the 'sunset' years of a technology when the sun is actually starting to dip below the horizon. It also starkly illustrates the problem that Telstra has in Australia which is now far worse than the problem faced by the big US carriers. Telstra shares the problem of maintaining a PSTN that is being abandoned by its users and therefore the revenue/profit earned is declining while the maintenance costs decline at a slower rate but, now Krudd and co have stepped in, Telstra doesn't get to build the replacement network that builds replacement revenue and profit and has no incentive to maintain the PSTN except at higher prices to all concerned - and quite justifiably so.....at least as far as the actual facts are known.
So, if I'm understanding this, and the other submissions I've read on the replacement of PSTN by fibre (or whatever) correctly, AT&T are clearly making the point that the 'owner' of the PSTN is the only 'party' that should be allowed to build a replacement network otherwise it has absolutely no incentive to keep the PSTN operating while the customers slowly transfer to the new network owned by a competitor. Seems logical enough and bearing in mind the fibre replacement will take some years to roll out it seems equally clear that the burden of maintaining the PSTN for an ever fewer number of users is a key financial consideration....hence the various submissions by the US carriers to their FCC.
Perhaps the more sanguine observers can take the view that the Australian government has Telstra thrown, hog tied and ready for the knife if this scenario is correct? Maybe Telstra's recent significant reduction in its revenue forecasts is based on the sort of PSTN abandonment numbers being experienced by the US carriers? Irrespective of which view you take it seems inevitable that the changes in economy of operating the PSTN will damage Telstra's abilities to make its profit targets which, in my view, can only result in higher prices for ADSL as Telstra will have a case that even the ACCC will agree makes providing SSS or ULL more expensive as each year goes by and any 'NBN2' commissioning will simply escalate that price curve.
That's the problem with people who have zero knowledge making decisions about things - it ends in tears.