John Linton
.......not a pretty sight from what can be discerned through the fogs of obfuscation and the clouds of trepidation that fill the Australian telecommunications 'space' these days. I think the future became even more obscure yesterday when I read this set of comments:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/no-return-on-nbn-for-up-to-30-years/story-e6frgczf-1225854288787
a few hours before we attended a meeting to determine how/if we would use the new fibre solutions that Telstra and the Federal Government will 'shortly' make available in some, initially very few in the case of the Federal government, locations in Tasmania. Telstra will, at least initially, make many more locations available than the 4,000 'residences' planned for the pre-Federal election 'launch' of fibre services in Tasmania which may have done a little bit of good by almost saving the State Labor Government in that State last month - though the negative swing augurs badly for such a hope for the Federal Labor Government.
When Exetel established a PoP in Hobart it was always on the basis that it would allow us to connect to an 'NBN2' if that ever became a reality and thus allow us to offer higher speed broadband services at some future time because it seemed highly unlikely that Optus would provide land line services in that State and their likelihood of providing affordable wireless broadband looked equally dim. Once the Federal Government preempted any attempt at rational/commercial costing of delivering an 'NBN2' by committing to a blatant vote catching strategy of '"wiring the whole of Tasmania" in a bid to protect the five Federal seats in Tasmania it appeared to be a reasonable chance that they would have to deliver some sort of credible coverage before the next Federal election and, assuming that Labor got a second term that coverage might even turn out to be a reasonable chunk of the Hobart, Launceston and Devonport markets.
It hasn't really turned out that way, reality has set in in terms of the time frames and difficulties of building and activating new infrastructures, but it appears, from recent press statements, that activation of fibre services will become a reality as of July 1st 2010 thus allowing Labor to go to the election that will happen shortly after that date claiming to have delivered on its promises of 'high speed data services'. Assuming Labor gets re-elected then perhaps over the coming three years 4,000 residences will become 40,0000 or whatever. If this does happen then, for the first time since 2004, it will be possible for companies like Exetel to compete with all other communications providers (including Telstra) on the proverbial 'equal footing'......at least in some areas of Tasmania.
Unless Telstra has 'done a deal' with the Federal government before the end of June it will be interesting to see what transpires in terms of competitive pricing between Telstra's fibre data offerings and the pricing that will be offered by those companies that have signed up with the Tasmanian 'NBN2' Co at that time of which it seems there are currently three - iPrimus, InterNode and iiNet. Harking back to the cited article it will all come down to pricing for the fibre offerings of either organisation to be a success. Those public statements that it may be a very long time, measured in decades rather than years, for the 'NBN2' Co to make a commercial return (meaning realistic profit) is some sort of portent of how much tax payer subsidy might be needed over the coming "20 to 30 years" to bring that about which in turn would raise issues as to how Telstra would react to such a scenario.
The only estimates of end user fibre pricing in Tasmania were published in the Hobart Mercury on March 16th 2010 by iiNet - and they were woefully unexciting to be as kind as possible - they can be found in the HM archives or on the Exetel Forums here:
http://forum.exetel.com.au/viewtopic.php?f=288&t=35575
Of course they are merely a publicity seeking exercise and are unlikely to turn out to be anywhere close to what will actually be offered - but - as the only 'published' pricing they are totally unattractive - even including some sort of telephone voice capability.
I would have thought that making any decision on plan pricing before Telstra comes up with their own 'NBN2' beater pricing is significantly premature although it would be a pretty safe bet that Telstra, even for a 'start up' service, will not make the pricing or the content particularly attractive.....but then Telstra have never found themselves in this sort of position before. Of course, while these gyrations are very important to Tasmanians, the real question is what 'NBN2' Co, Telstra and the ACCC come up with in any large scale pricing decisions over the coming 15 or so months. Based on the comments in the cited article that has just become far more interesting than it was.
10, 9, 8, 7.........