John Linton
...these figures from the US are more than a little interesting:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124164303801393063.html
My youngest daughter is about to leave home to live in the unit she (and the bank) have recently purchased and as a person whose job and whose leisure time pursuits require constant home internet access she has no intention of installing a telephone line either for voice calls or for ADSL. She will use her mobile for telephone calls and HSPA for internet (in Neutral Bay she can get a 7.2 mbps signal that gives average speeds well above 2 mbps).
Looking at the trends in the cited report it seems that many people are now making the decision that they don't need a home land line for either voice or data and are more than happy to use a mobile phone and wireless broadband - there's the obvious cost saving but it also is something else - an indication that, at least, for young professionals "super fast internet" is not a higher priority than cost.....or that's what I understand these statistics to mean.
As someone who is far from young, but does use the internet constantly I have also never had a need for anything faster than 1 mbps or whatever my previous broadband services have delivered over the past 7 years - and my usage averages 10 - 12 hours each day. I, of course, am aware that ping speeds and download speeds are a matter of life and death for some types of residential internet users but it will be interesting to see, over the coming year or so, just what percentage of total broadband users those types of users really represent. For the majority of business use and virtually all of my 'leisure use' (which includes live baseball games from the USA) my HSPA service comfortably handles my personal needs.
My major interest in "speed vs cost" at the moment is based on how successful Telstra will be/is being in using its claims of 20 mbps+ speeds to sell its HSPA services. While I understand that the 'more intelligent buyer' will read the disclaimers and be able to work out for themselves that 20 mbps will translate into something far less than that in most individual cases it is still a powerful message for the less intelligent/research minded buyer - pretty much as the wire line broadband services are selected on faster claimed speeds are more important than actual speeds and faster speeds generally are better than slower speeds - although for a large percentage of users speed is never going to have any effect on their actual usage.
Should the US statistics prove to be accurate for the current situation and should that trend continue then it appears that at least part of the broadband market (including people as different in their broadband 'needs' as me and my youngest daughter) prefer lower cost over 'super fast speed' and that the blanket assumption that speed is everything is, in fact, not really going to be as compelling (assuming it actually is) in tougher economic times as it may have been to date. It is a very big 'if' but it's ramifications are even bigger.
One swallow doesn't make a summer etc, etc....but I think there is more 'sophistication/knowledge' being applied to a slowly growing percentage of broadband selection today than there was 2 - 3 years ago. I see this partly in the number of Exetel customers who downgrade ADSL1 speed plans increasing over the past two years as well as the continuing increase in the number of Exetel users who downgrade ADSL2 plans to less included peak allowances as they realise they can download while they are asleep and use the files they downloaded at some future time rather than thinking they need to "download while they watch".
As we embark on a program to 'double our user base' by putting considerable efforts in to HSPA services in rural/regional Australia I obviously have a deep interest in the concepts of getting rid of wire line services to emphasise the cost advantages of HSPA (and to provide another 2 gbs 'for fee'). Our future pans will obviously emphasise the use of VoIP and ATA included routers as well as Yagi aerials and low cost HSPS modem capability making the 'dongle/stick' unnecessary.
But the major 'battle' will remain the much faster downloads via ADSL2 and, at least currently, the much lower cost of data using wire line services. Those issues will never be overcome and if they remain 'essential' then we will have a much tougher time to make HSPA the service of choice for a larger percentage of users. The elimination of the land line rental will be a significant issue in this "battle" as the $A30.00+ per month plus the expensive call costs can be used for another 2 - 3 gb of data which is going to be important. However the 'uncertainties' of getting rid of the land line ("emergencies") are going to be difficult to overcome and while VoIP is very commonly used now the set up and 'fear' is another issue to be addressed.
Like any marketplace, broadband users will continue to become more knowledgeable about more aspects of broadband as they become more familiar with it....it will be very interesting to see if the 'no wire line' household percentage in Australia follows the trend in the USA - and even more interesting to see what happens in rural/regional Australia.
Then again if these ACMA statistics are vaguely correct (courtesy of Rick) then Australia is not at all similar to the USA:
http://www.acma.gov.au/WEB/STANDARD/pc=PC_311716