John Linton
It has now been 2 months since we 'launched' the Exetel/Optus HSPA services using our own, very different, understanding of what HSPA could sensibly address at this stage of its sustainable speeds and geographic coverage. We took a completely different view to Optus itself, its wholly owned retailer - Virgin and the virtually identical approaches taken by Vodafone and 3. (I could never actually work out what Telstra were aiming to do).
Two months, that were impacted by various misconceptions of Optus' "readiness" and therefore a delayed release that completely screwed up the timing of our carefully planned calendar opportunities, are obviously not enough to make any sort of valid judgment as to how successful, or otherwise, an Exetel/Optus HSPA service will become over the next 9 - 12 months.
Because of the delayed release, our planned 'roll out' had to be scrapped and we will not really now be able to 'push' the HSPA service until February of next year which, at least in some ways, may be better for a number of reasons all relating to the current 'economic uncertainties'. Having said that - the initial take up of the HSPA service is now around 10% of the total 'net adds' of broadband services over the initial 2 months which is around the middle of our expectations after the release program had to be 'junked' because of the delays. The numbers can't really be analysed in any meaningful way because they aren't yet large enough and we haven't had the time over this period to do the work required.
One of the most pleasing aspects of the first two months has been the very high level of 'satisfaction' being reported by the first 500 users who have now had time to use the service in most areas of Australia and trying out most of the applications that we see as being important to the future success of an Exetel HSPA offering. In particular, VOIP has worked well for most people in most places and my personal use of our HSPA service has only been VoIP and I'm more than satisfied that it meets all of my needs - I haven't called anyone so far who has commented on my using VoIP over my Nokia N96 and when I ask some people I've called they say the call just sounds like a mobile call.
We continue to develop the Exetel SMS over IP service for HSPA and continue, via the Exetel Forum, to work with our users to perfect that offering and bring it up to the same standard as the ADSL version. A combination of VoiP over mobile call rates and 5 cent SMS over HSPA is a true reality for an Exetel/Optus HSPA user today and will only improve, in terms of pricing, speed and coverage, throughout 2009.
The other really pleasing aspect of these early days has been the faster, on average, speeds being achieved by the early users. After the plethora of bad press that Optus/Virgin received leading up to our delayed release and then continuing over the past two months we were prepared to be disappointed in early user experiences but that hasn't been the case. In fact, overall, the early user's experiences have been the reverse of the reported Optus/Virgin reported speeds with the majority of Exetel early users reporting average speeds of well over 1 mbps (sustained) and many cases of over 2 mbps in quite diverse locations.
Unfortunately we haven't had enough time to reach the numbers of users we need to properly analyse the service's performance in enough detail to allow us to be as emphatic as we need to be to heavily promote/push the service in the Christmas lead up, so we have scrapped those plans. Perhaps that isn't a bad thing, but I'm conscious of losing time in a take up of HSPA services that continue to accelerate with reports of there now being over 1 million Australian HSPA users - a remarkable 'acceleration' in take up over the past 12 months.
It is impossible, for us, to estimate what will happen in terms of any aspect of business in calendar 2009 let alone how an embryonic service will develop in an unknown marketplace in unknown economic conditions. Our current plans are very much under review including our estimates that we would have 25,000 HSPA users by the last quarter of 2009. We will still aim at making it compellingly attractive for our current 256/64 and 512/128 ADSL users to move to HSPA if ADSL2 isn't available to them and we will aim at building an integrated mobile offering based on HSPA as a major differentiator to current 'standard' mobile offerings.
One way or another I am determined not to put up with having to deal with Telstra for much longer and waste even more of the little time of life that remains to me.
We see a very real opportunity of making a great success out of HSPA in rural and regional areas via our agents in those areas and, for the first time in Exetel's 'history' we will support our country agent's HSPA promotion activities with local advertising. We have great reports from over 100 Exetel HSPA users in rural areas on NSW, Queensland, Victoria and WA and we see this early performance indication as a 'green flag' for the type of HSPA plans we have provided together with the 'unique' Exetel VoiP, SMS and FAX over HSPA that we can offer that none of the carriers will be able to do (or want to do more accurately).
Both those initiatives, even if they 'fail', will help Exetel change very significantly as a communications company and, hopefully, we will be able to continue to set the standards for providing the lowest priced communications services to residential and business users. If they succeed then .........far too early to even think about success.....especially in times like these.