John Linton ......and what will poor Robin do then? Poor thing.
It's surprising what you remember from your pre-school days and how your mind associates events and conversations of today with such trivia from so long ago. I can't remember the rest of that nursery rhyme exactly but I'm sure it referenced putting it's head under it's wing - ie. attempting to ignore the freezing weather of the Northern Hemisphere's winter.
This little 'ditty' ran through my mind after I received two interesting telephone calls from two of the three companies that Exetel had been considering for the supply of ADSL2 MSANs last year, before the change of government and the subsequent bleak economic forecasts made it prudent for us to put any such investments on hold for an indefinite period. Why either of them should call us at all is strange enough (we had made it clear less than a month ago to both companies that we would not be doing anything until early 2009 at the earliest) but for both of them to call within an hour of each other makes it unlikely that it was a co-incidence of diligent prospect follow up.
So what was the aspect(s) of the separate calls that brought back remembrance of a nursery rhyme heard more than 50 years ago? Nothing that was plainly stated or even directly inferred in either phone call. However the two conversations, put together, suggested something quite interesting.
The first telephone call was from someone I have known for a very long while and was the more direct of the two. After a minimum of polite enquiry about the usual things (how's business for you, looking forward to your vacation etc) came the interesting question - "have you been offered any really good deals on DSLAM networks recently?" To which I replied, quite truthfully at that particular moment - "no". To which he replied "well if you are please don't forget that we are still really interested in helping you out and OLD technology wouldn't be the best way for you to go". I assured him that we wouldn't do such a thing to which he replied that maybe I would be offered a deal that appeared too good to refuse and please give him a call if that was the case. After attempting to get more details and failing we hung up and I thought no more about it.
Late yesterday afternoon I received another call - this time from a company that we had only brief contact with during the investigation process and who had been the least responsive to our requests but had a viable operational solution albeit at the most expensive price of the three solutions we ended up considering. Essentially this phone call was a request for a meeting to allow the caller to put a proposal to us that he believed would be of such interest that we would be almost certain to accept it as it was a true "no risk - no commitment proposition". When I asked for more details he demurred but added that "it would include immediate availability to the majority of the exchanges in the original proposal at a better cost than previously proposed and with no long term financial barriers."
I said I would call him back as I would need to discuss what Exetel's capability was in terms of undertaking an unplanned operational and financial project such as would be involved. After some further interchanges we concluded the call with me promising to call him back next Monday after we had discussed reconsidering some sort of DSLAM implementation.
It was after I had put the phone down that nursery rhyme 'played itself' in a continuous loop in my head for a minute or so.
What was it all about? I don't know. What would be my best guess? Hmmm.....four possible scenarios 'spring to mind':
1) A customer who is using that DSLAM provider to provide a managed DSLAM network has defaulted on its payments and the manufacturer is looking for a buyer.
2) Under its terms of providing managed DSLAM services the manufacturer has the right, in the event that certain volumes aren't met, to sell ports and services to other interested parties
3) The manufacturer is acting as an 'agent' on behalf of someone it's sold managed DSLAM services to in an arms length arrangement to boost usage on an under utilized network roll out
4) The manufacturer has seen a dramatic slow down (caused by the FTTN 'tender' fiasco) in its sales of DSLAMs and is working out how it can become a managed services provider to those ISPs who can't afford, don't want to afford, their own DSLAM network
Your guess is as good as mine.
My personal view is that 4) above is the most likely scenario perhaps based on some parts of 1) to 3) above. I think that would be a very interesting concept - divorcing the DSLAM network from any of the current ISPs/Carriers (who, at the end of the day, all prefer to use their networks for their retail businesses). It could be a very good idea to have a 'true' wholesaler of ADSL2 termination and back haul services at affordable costs for even relatively small ISPs. It would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons in terms of what current ADSL2 wholesale pricing is available.
Just one more 'unknown quantity' along with Telstra's possible offer of wholesale ADSL2, Telstra's possible offer of lower cost ADSL1, other DSLAM network owners offers of different pricing models for access to their networks and the risk of building out Exetel's own DSLAM network (not going to ever happen if my views remain correct).
But there is every indication of a chill settling over the provision of broadband services in a number of areas and some indications that more than one of the remaining ISPs is beginning to feel the cold winds of a wintry economic outlook more keenly than they had planned on. Poor things.