Wednesday, February 4. 2009'Nakedness' Surge Continues.........John Linton ......end of PSTN line/call charge and ADSL1 rip offs in sight? Exetel is a very small company but its business patterns are the only ones I have a detailed knowledge about so I can only gauge the 'nuances' of the DSL marketplaces from our own data. One, very obvious, continuing trend is the continued growth in 'market share' of ADSL2 without an active telephone line. I commented on this growth some time ago and since then it has continued in an ever more marked way. Since the beginning of 2009 there hasn't been a day when "Naked ADSL2" applications haven't been greater than ADSL2 that needs an active telephone line with many days now showing more than twice the number of "Naked" ADSL2 orders than ADSL2 with a telephone line service. Over the past few days there have been several where "Naked ADSL2" has also come close to or exceeded the number of applications for ADSL1. It's also evident from the enquiries being received by Exetel that the interest in "naked" services are far outstripping those for services with PSTN calling capabilities. If these trends are so clear with Exetel then I would think they are the same/similar for all other ISPs that offer a choice of ADSL2 services - and should be equally obvious to those that don't. Of course these volumes aren't yet significant in the overall broad band market places because the dominant ADSL provider and its wholesaler ISP customers (Telstra) eschew offering "naked" broadband services because of their need to maintain as many active PSTN lines (and their rip off call charges) as possible. It's also clear from the prices that ISPs other than Telstra charge for telephone calls and line rentals that they would be reluctant to see that revenue and profit disappear from their annual 'company size'. In one way Teltra et alia's decision to insist that their customers continue to live in the past regarding the provision of ADSL is a good thing because it obviously locks them out of what seems to be by far the fastest growing 'section' of the wire line based broadband markets. Not good for their customers but then I doubt whether there has ever been a day in Telstra's history where what was good for their customers ever intruded in to any decision making process - similarly with the other ISPs who haven't provided the quite obviously best version (for the customer) of wire line based broadband. I could be quite wrong of course and it may well be the case that ALL Telstra's decisions (and those of the other ISPs who have not provided a "naked" ADSL2 service) are ONLY based on what's in the best interests of their customers - perhaps I just don't look at enough facts before reaching the conclusions I stated above. From what I can see the trend towards 'wire line less' broadband services ("naked" ADSL2 and HSPA) will continue the current trends and Exetel's current small figures show net adds of "Naked" ADSL2 and HSPA exceeding the net adds of ADSL2 that requires an active telephone line plus ADSL1 with that 'surplus' increasing each day and showing no sign of decline. It's a pleasant result for us because when we stopped offering 256/62 ADSL1 services our daily application intake dropped about 13% for around two months before the HSPA applications 'filled the gap' and have now exceeded the previous contribution of that slowest speed ADSL service. I realise all the "smart" marketing people within the venal ISPs will point out that the basic residential telephone line user is both stupid and conservative and that those ISPs can rely on their customer's fear and inertia to keep them from changing to the newer cost saving technologies. It's what avaricious company's marketing/finance people always do - attempt to slow the progress of the human race for their own dull and petty understandings of their own self interest. However to misquote someone I don't remember: "There is nothing so unstoppable as an idea whose time has come" I've heard that phrase used about VoIP since Steve and I installed some of the first PAPL lines with voice compression boxes at either end in the mid 1990s and of course every year since then. Clearly, for many years that view was totally wrong - but not any more - VoIP (and VoIP over HSPA) is probably the ONLY way to make voice calls today because they cost a fraction of what Telstra et alia want to charge for a non-VoIP call (and the wire line to carry the call). 10 cents per STD untimed call with no telephone line rental has to be increasingly compelling to even the most conservative of users. NO business that uses anything but VoIP is doing anything but wasting huge amounts of money in a totally reprehensible way. NO residential user that doesn't make the minor investment in a VoIP TA/router/whatever is doing anything but costing themselves money that they should be spending on the basic essential and/or the joys of life - not giving it to a rip off telephone company. Much sooner than is the situation right now (according to the trends in Exetel's applications for broadband services) the upward trend in "voice telephone line less" broad band will become exponential and one of the Telstra "benefit of the shareholder's" curses on all Australians will melt away like unseasonal snow on a hot day. .....but then again, that was being said in 1995..... Trackbacks
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Are the numbers of adsl1 users churning to HSPA and adsl2 services as expected so far?
I changed one of my adsl1 plans over last week. Comment (1)
They are a little lower than we had hoped for but pretty much in line with our mid range expectations.
Comments (6)
We are actually looking at implementing a VoIP product designed specifically for takeaway (i.e. Indian, Chinese, Thai, etc) restaurants.
Product would consist of unlimited concurrent incoming calls, call queue (for incoming unanswered calls), 1 x phone extension (with their number ported from their existing provider), 1 x fax extension (porting not possible), IP-based EFTPOS terminal and HSPA connectivity (through Exetel) all for around $105/mth including rental of the EFTPOS terminal. We hope we're on a winner. Just 2 lines and an EFTPOS terminal would normally cost around $115/mth and we are hoping that our added functionality will get us over the line to win people away from their existing providers. I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on this product (or anyone else who is watching). With our recent tests with the Exetel HSPA product, we feel comfortable having up to 6 concurrent lines per connection. However, if people are using this many lines consistently, Naked ADSL2 is a much better option (if available in their area) as data costs for HSPA are still very expensive. Comments (3)
I am interested in how you will provide "with their number ported from their existing provider"
I do not believe that this is currently available. If it was I would port my Telstra number to an Exetel VoIP number and move to Naked ADSL service Comment (1)
It's true, Exetel doesn't offer number porting however, our wholesale VoIP partner will port numbers.
Comments (3)
How long does it take to port a PSTN number to VoIP?
We have thre major suppliers of VoIP minutes but none of them, including Australia's second largest carriers can give any timeframe other than 2 - 6 weeks. Please let me know how you get it done so easily. Comments (6)
John,
Exetel appears to be following all the right paths to move from being a small sized ISP ( your words ) to moving to become what would be described as a medium sized ISP. Do you see a time where Exetel might achieve a level where it was advantageous to float and become a public company, or are the plans to always remain in private hands. Their is much to like in the way Exetel is currently run, would a public float be detrimental to your vision. bill. Comments (2)
There are no plans for Exetel to become anything other than a private company.
There are two main reasons for this: 1) Exetel couldn't do what it does now (in terms of the lowest possible pricing) if were to become a public company and therefore would have no reason to be in business. 2) Exetel would not have, in its current form, any interest from an investor because it offers nothing 'new/blue sky' in terms of growth and absolutely nothing in terms of investment return. Quite frankly I have no idea where Exetel's future lies - in the event that it has one at all - beyond the aspirations of its current shareholders to play a part in reducing the costs of communications for all Australians by offering services at the lowest possible prices. For 5 years we have operated without debt or even 'leasing finance' and while I would like the money that Annette and I have invested in the company back at some stage I don't see any future need for additional investments - we seem to be able to cope with buying the things we need for the business out of our small monthly profits. Comments (6)
John,
The more I talk with you, the more I don’t understand -- you do the most honorable things with Exetel and are so upfront with your thoughts ,its just so foreign to how the rest of the world seems to operate now. I have no greater praise for you and your ideals than I actually trust in what you are doing. I know you support the Animal welfare and carbon reduction causes each month as I have noted in the User facilities - I’m just totally confused -- but good work and keep doing what you are - your the sort of person this world needs. Comments (2)
I'm sorry that what I write is confusing to anyone.
My objectives are to write as coherently as possible and to respond to requests for elucidation even more clearly. As for being "different" - well, almost everyone is different in one or more ways to everyone else. Running a business for the benefit of your customers, the environment and endangered species is very personally rewarding - and money has never interested me beyond having enough to live comfortably and meet my personal financial obligations to my wife and children. Comments (6)
I think it's quite honorable actually to run your business like this, with the consumer in mind, if more companies had this mindset and it wasn't all about greed and profit at any expense then perhaps the world wouldn't be in the total mess it's in right now
Comment (1)
Having just switched to a Naked plan, from one of the older INCPHONE plans, the only item that took a while to decide on, was to relinguish the PSTN number I've had for the last 12 plus years - and that took about a day or so
My call pattern is low enough that the first 100 free local/national calls means I effectively have no call costs, and the price of my regular calls to family in NZ are half of what the INCPHONE charges were. Comment (1)
Would now be a good time for Exetel to have a second look at providing Naked DSL to those who don't have an active phone line?
It's a major turn off for me, at least (the idea that I've got to sign up with Telstra, pay the install to them, hope and pray I haven't been stuck on a RIM, too far from the exchange or anything else, then apply to Exetel only to have the line turned off again) I'm sure there's a good reason you currently don't (probably something along the lines of: Telstra are very difficult to deal with), but your rivals (IINet and Internode) manage it (albeit with higher costs). Comment (1)
I would 'get naked' in an instant if I could port my PSTN number to a DID. No question about it.
I'm dependant on it (rather, my parents are) and I imagine this is a similar case with nearly all customers who have ADSL2+ with line rental but are already using VoIP. If number portability ever becomes a reality then naked ADSL would simply replace ADSL with line rental altogether. Then again, what would companies with vested interests in line-rental products say about that (Optus)? I suppose Optus WS and retail are two different things, but I imagine their paths would cross as one undermines the other.. still many moons away from that ever happening, though. Comment (1)
Number portability is possible, just have a look around for a couple of other VoIP providers (which I will not mention here).
ACMA has some interesting and sometimes complicated requirements regarding number porting however, it is a pretty safe bet that any fixed line can be ported without too much effort or expense. The biggest problem is potentially losing the ability to call in on the line for a week whilst the number is being ported and, if the number is the same on the ADSL line is on, you might have some disconnection issues. Comments (3)
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