Monday, April 19. 2010More Tougher Than Average Decisions.......John Linton ......and no clear bases on which to make them. Last week seemed to me to be a much tougher than average week in terms of really difficult decisions that needed to be made and looking at what is coming up this week it seems to me that the decisions that need to be made are less clear cut and more difficult than last week. While I realise that the responsibility for making decisions in commercial life is very clearly that of the people who seek, or end up in, 'positions of authority' within commercial enterprises it doesn't change the fact that more and more decisions that need to be made, even in a company of Exetel's size have become more difficult under the current Labor government which has intruded so deeply in to the communications industry. One of the decisions that we foresaw from the moment the 'NBN1' was announced, and then when it was demonstrated to be the total sham it actually was, the 'NBN2' replaced it, was a period where the real future direction of providing residential data services would become very unclear. It was also obvious that government interference would reach its most damaging stage at around the same time that the ADSL broadband market would become saturated producing the 'double whammy' effect beloved of a certain level of financial forecasters. That time is around about now. There is little doubt that the ADSL broadband market has become saturated and there is only a little doubt that the Labor government's intrusion into the communications industry has reached its 'turning point'....has it done enough to get re-elected and continue with the venture or will it be seen by an electorate, together with many other things, as one more uncosted blue sky promise that will bankrupt the country and destroy its future? Either scenario is irrelevant because the degree of uncertainty is all that matters and that very clearly is what is causing many of the current 'events' now being seen. All that does matter is what to do about providing residential data services between now and the next Federal election and then, after that election, if in fact Labor is re-elected, quickly working out what will be the likely time frame of a deliverable 'NBN' infrastructure and how much of Australia it will cover within the various time frames. In the mean time today is very difficult to deal with for residential data services using non wireless solutions and we need to make some really hard decisions on how we deal with the coming 3 - 6 months. As with last week's decisions, I haven't got any bases for making them as even the immediate future is unclear to me which makes it very difficult to make up your mind on what you should do in terms of the current ADSL residential services and especially what should be done with wireless services in the next few weeks. http://www.smh.com.au/business/customer-decline-hurts-telstra-20100418-sml3.html One of the unknowns is illustrated in the above article. What is Telstra going to do with its residential ADSL and other service offerings to arrest its declining market share and what, if anything are they going to do with their wholesale pricing as they decide on agreeing to split off their wholesale operations? We have two major contracts to sign or not sign based on how we see the month by month situation 'panning out' and a third contract that could become very important depending on the result of the next Federal election. I haven't got any idea as I type this what I will recommend to these decision making processes as to how we continue offering ADSL2, how we continue offering wireless broadband and whether we begin the process of finding a fibre residential service with enough coverage and suitable pricing to make it viable - for Exetel to offer. Business services are unaffected by the current government intrusion and the saturation of the ADSL marketplaces because business services do not use ADSL and will not use an asymmetric fibre service in their core applications. Basically all these decisions revolve around what services Exetel could offer to residential users in late 2010/2011, if any, and what infrastructure(s) should they be offered on. ADSL is not looking like it will be a service that Exetel will be offering in mid 2011 but there are so many unknowns between now and then that I can't say that with any degree of conviction. I wonder whether any other data communications companies are as unclear as I am on what will happen in the residential market places? What will the ABS report published in late August 2011 show in terms of ADSL, wireless, 'NBN2' and Telstra/Optus Fibre user break down? I wonder if any ISP/RSP has got those numbers even close to being correct yet? 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5,
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May I suggest when the environment is very fast moving, flexibility is key. Maybe instead of signing 12 month service provision contracts, you should sign six month contracts, or even three month contracts, and revise them at the end of the contract. Instead of annual review, make the customer contracts six monthly, or three monthly with extensions (6+6).
If there are fixed costs which are amortised over the twelve months, then include those as a separate line. Let the consumers also have the same flexibility that you have. This is in line with the maxim -'a problem shared is a problem halved'. Good luck. Your choices to date have been good. Comment (1)
Richard,
It would be a massive advantage to be able to 'negotiate' good pricing on shorter contracts. However, to date, that has never been possible with 12 months regarded as a short contract and the median being 24 months. Perhaps it's just another example of my lack of negotiating skills. Comments (10)
Yeah right after six years they dont know you(?SX);
bandwidth market is so artificial it's incredulous ,maybe give them the sack.. if its possible. Comments (3)
>Basically all these decisions revolve >around what services Exetel could >offer to residential users
Hi John, Easy ideas here! - Unmetered iview viewing to www.abc.net.au/iview. Would be nice to see exetel providing it along with the other isps - Unmetered Tivo interface in line with other isps.(see.www.tivo.com.au) Being a customer of Exetel for a few years , and not being about to use the Tivo to its full potential In short, The indirect advertising achieved through there endorsements would provide improved exposure and appeal to the masses about exetel. Thanks Comment (1)
Hi John,
Clarity of thought and decisive action is what’s needed. You seem to be like a driver who always leaves his left hand blinker flashing on the assumption he may turn off left eventually, but doesn’t know where or when. Don’t over think the problem you seem unable to make decisions now, you just keep extending the allocated time to make them. cheers bill Comment (1)
Bill,
Well that's new - for the whole of my life I have been 'accused' of making decisions far too quickly. Comments (10)
oohh a countdown over the last three days! you are such a tease!
Comments (3)
Hi John,
I just have a question about how Exetel intends to compete with Internodes new plans? http://www.internode.on.net/residential/broadband/adsl/extreme/pricing/ I can understand most ISP's in the industry aren't even going to try to compete with TPG on the most part. However Internodes new plans do seem quite good value. Especially as they are coupled with Unmetered Content and free Usenet access (via Astraweb). The only disadvantage of course, is these plans are delivered over an Agile (Internode) DSLAM and this is why costs would be lower. I would say that if Internode intend on a large scale DSLAM rollout, this could be something to look into. Cheers. Comments (2)
Anthony,
Aren't all our current plans cheaper with more downloads and available from more exchanges than those plans? Comments (10)
John,
your last 3 blogs have ended with a countdown from 10. I'm intrigued to know what is going to happen when you get to 0? Paul Comment (1)
I dont know the ABS data were that statistically exciting to anticipate the next release; you had digested one a couple weeks ago JL ,
+1, This "..8, 7, 6, 5..." signature; awating something, or for dramatic effect ? Comments (3)
Hi John,
My apologies, I must have missed your latest revision of plans . Your plans are quite good value. Thank you for your reply. Cheers. Comments (2)
I didn't think that Internode did anything special - they seemed to have fallen way behind everyone else and just fiddled with their plan allowances.
The 'node phone' offer puzzles me as I'm not sure what it is - is it just VoIP calls at reasonable charges with a ten dollar discount off the high priced ADSL2 plan? Or is it something real? Does the end user still require to rent a telephone line from a carrier/provider or is this a ULL service? Any help would be appreciated. (I tried to call Internode but hung up after 18 minutes of being on hold) Comments (10)
A very confusing internode website. I could be bamboozled here so take with garin of salt.
Bundled $10 discounts apply to 'NodeLine' ($30 p/m resold PSTN). Rates $0.18 fixed local, $0.15 p/m national, $0.29 p/m mobile NodePhone is VoIP and applicable to Line Sharing, Bundled and ULL ($5 p/m w/DID + $10 call credit). Rates $0.18 fixed national, $0.29 p/m mobile. Comments (3)
I still can't see where the line charge is....do you have a URL?
I am still puzzled by the on line call waiting message that implies it's VoIP. I will hve to wait until someone answers the Internode phone system. Comments (10)
'NodeLine': http://www.internode.on.net/residential/home_phone/nodeline/plans/
'NodePhone': http://www.internode.on.net/residential/home_phone/nodephone/pricing/ There's links with more info in the fine print and the menu tree to the top left. Comments (3)
Thank you - I really appreciate it.
Comments (10)
very thoughtful simon; and I follow you on whirl pool just fine
Comments (3)
Hi John,
I'm not quite following you. It seems you think ADSL will go away. You say that "ADSL is not looking like it will be a service that Exetel will be offering in mid 2011" but it is unclear why you think that? Is it because there will be no demand? Is it a market Exetel will leave? Or is it because you think it will not be available - for example the copper falls into the hands of NBNco? Comments (3)
If 'NBN2Co' lasts beyond the next Federal election (if Labor wins) then I think that ADSL2 will become progressively non-viable for anyone to offer as 'NBN2Co' pricing will be more, bang for buck, more attractive and if you were offered a 50 - 100 mbps down service at the same price as one of the lower cost current ADSL2 plans which would you select?
If Labor doesn't win the next election then the Coalition will 'scrap' NBN2 and fund an alternative service which, again, will offer higher speeds at equal or lower cost to the current reasonably priced ADSL2 services of today. Either way I have some doubts as to whether Exetel will be offering residential users an ADSL2 based data service mid 2011. Comments (10)
Thanks John.
Personally I'm more price sensitive than speed. I'll pay the lowest I can get away with to run VOIP. In my current situation that is ADSL2. I wouldn't pay any more for 50-100 mbps over ADSL2 and we only get 4200 kbps on ADSL2. Currently I have no need for any more so see no reason to pay for it. (For those skeptical of this, I do have 350+mbps connection at work and "Never underestimate the bandwidth of a station wagon full of tapes hurtling down the highway" —Tanenbaum, Andrew S. (1996). Computer Networks) So the answer to your question is I'll select the one with the cheaper bottom line. It would be a bonus if NBN2Co pricing forces down the wholesale price of ADSL2! Comments (3)
Even existing users?!
Comments (2)
Thomas,
I'm not sure I understand your question. My point was that when/if there is an alternative to ADSL in any location, provided it's at equal or lower cost to the end user we would provide a no charge 'swap' to such a theoretical service. Comments (10)
Oh right, blame my tiredness for the lack of comprehension. I do! (not helped by a 17 month old child) - bless him!
Comments (2)
I vaguely remember the feeling.
I have always wondered how any woman ever has a second child. Comments (10)
Same way as the first! I think sleep deprivation fades the memory quicker. Explains the vague memory and why people have a second!
Comments (3)
If Exetel ceases to offer ADSL2 to residential customers, what will be it's position with ADSL1? Also, what (if anything) will happen to existing users if adsl 1/2 is no longer offered?
Comment (1)
maybe my ability to write is atrophying with my advancing age.
What I was trying to say was that Exetel would offer fibre alternatives to ADSL in those locations where that became available and would also offer wireless alternatives if wireless pricing fell sufficiently. Comments (10)
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