John Linton ....then you're either a man 'my son' - or, more likely, you are too stupid, or in case of CK - too stupid and too dishonest, to understand the gravity of the situation. (apologies to Rudyard Kipling).
I was irresistibly reminded of Kipling's "If" last night when CK, in one of his more somnolently measured, moon faced grinning and totally ridiculously wrong discourses was assuring the Labor sycophant (Kerry O'Brien) on the ABC's 7.30 report that all was well with the Australian economy - he clearly doesn't look at the ASX daily or read the financial press reporting increased unemployment and record levels of personal and commercial bankruptcies. He was making his stupid statements a few hours before Wall Street plunged yet another 680 points:
http://online.wsj.com/public/us
and the world's economists were almost universally stating that the US was in for a 'severe and long lasting recession' which would drag the rest of the world down at the same time that Australia's economic fairy godmother (the PRC) was advising it would require 20% less iron and coal in 2009 which will drag mining prices down even further and will result in job losses in more than WA:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/fulltime-jobs-go-20081009-4x4p.html
Perhaps he can't read? It would be the only explanation.
And so we start another day with a cold shower of continuing bad news on all economic fronts - but I am going to try and not be depressed by the unending deluge of depressing 'news'.
Despite the moon faced moron's comments there very definitely are very obvious signs that Australian business is experiencing difficult times which undoubtedly means that Australia's people generally are experiencing difficult times. One clearly obvious sign that I can see are the eagerness of two of our 'take it or leave it' suppliers to suddenly be very anxious to offer us 'deals' that amount to previously unheard of discounts on their supplied services - 30% in one case and over 30% in the other case. Of course, the take it or leave it attitude remains with the conditions of the offers which make it impossible for us to consider either of them but the fact that they have moved so dramatically away from their previously immovable positions on price is at least very, very strange.
Even Telstra Wholesale, who either completely ignore us or treat us with a contempt usually reserved for slow witted children by bullying teachers of obscure subjects is insisting on forcing their attentions on us - which must surely be a sign that they are running out of buyers for their services. Why TW would attempt to 'sell' us anything after loftily dismissing every attempt we have made to create a realistic buy/sell relationship over almost five years can only be because they are in some sort of regulatory 'trouble' - it's impossible for a company like Exetel to deal with a supplier like Telstra if there is any other commercial alternative.
I was strangely 'cheered' by those three 'approaches' which, together with the strong increase in daily orders, seems to be a vindication of the old saying "that it's an ill wind that blows nobody any good" (resurrected in my mind a day or so ago by someone pointing out to me that I was sounding very depressed). Perhaps a long and deep recession will be an accelerant for low cost infrastructure and highly automated companies like Exetel because even more people will look to reduce their expenditures on outgoings like broadband, mobile and wire line telephone call costs? Maybe, as more than one person has pointed out to me, in tough times lowest priced providers of goods and services do much better than in 'good' times. That would be very nice should it prove to be the case.
Another, more ephemeral, measure of the 'toughness' of the marketplaces in which Exetel operates is the 'hate level' shown towards Exetel by employees of other ISPs and their cat's paws. I receive, either directly or via this blog or via the Exetel forum, a number of 'negatively phrased' emails/PMs each week. It always gives me a good feeling to know that Exetel's mere continuing existence is annoying to so many people - and how life deprived do these d***heads have to be to waste their time writing the bile dripping and invective dominant 'missives' they send me? Over the past 3 weeks the number of these communications has almost quadrupled to over 4 each day - and that has to indicate something is going wrong at companies such as Internode (whose IPs dominate the new high levels of abusive communications - more than 60% of the total). Perhaps the 'chill winds' of "a plateauing market" will require less over staffed ISP organizations in the near future?
So - keeping your head in these difficult to understand times will remain a challenge. Maybe due to my ignorance, almost certainly true, I think I would prefer to have Exetel's heavily automated, very low cost, operating structures than any other ISP's in Australia if, despite moon face's assurances, times do get tougher than they are today.