John Linton
A cliche but nevertheless true yet again....."where on Earth has this year gone?" Christmas party invitations are arriving daily, the first Christmas cake was made in our household over the weekend, the Exetel Christmas function has been booked and the 'embargo notices' from the carriers have begun to arrive advising that "new new work can be carried out between......." and the financiers we approached to fund possible infrastructure purchases are pushing for a commitment to spend the money we asked them to provide.
Also the 12 months we set as a decision timeframe to decide on some major project go/no go is almost gone.
It's always easier to spend money, especially someone else's, than it is to earn it. However for a small company like Exetel to spend a few million dollars it's a make or break decision and therefore one that causes constant worry. I've alluded to the various options we have been seriously considering over the past three months (from satellite, through WiMAx and 3G to ADSL2 dslams and everything in between) and the market drivers for the investment (from IPTV/Movies to cost reductions on residential services to larger circuit delivery to corporate users) and muttered about my frustrations in getting real, usable, plans put in place on which decisions can be made.
We will meet with the remaining 'short list' of suppliers who are capable of providing the services on which we would base the future of at least part of Exetel over the next 2 weeks and then hope to make a final decision by the end of November. I'm more cautious than I used to be and while that's not necessarily a bad thing (in my case almost certainly a very good thing) it does make decision making far slower than it once was.
One concern is the fact that communications (or "broadband" as the dumbed down press now have it) and politics have now become a bit of a 'joker in the deck' with the current Telstra funding of the Labour campaign (and therefore the quid pro quos that entails) some sort of concern. Irrespective of which side of politics gets a majority in the imminent election some major Federal Government 'meddling' will undoubtedly take place in some 'major communications initiatives' and it gives no comfort to be sure that means giving either Telstra or Optus (or - outside chance - Deutsche Telekom) some new massive funding to do whatever turns out to be the flavour of the month early next year.
I've always thought very poorly of people in decision making positions who seem to grab any future intangible to delay making a decision and I'm becoming concerned that I'm turning into one of those people. What I used to consider to be one of my very best characteristics was to make decisions faster than anone else I have ever known and, in the event they turned out not be so good, to have enough time to change course before too much damage was done. Having said that, I think this time that we will have to hedge Exetel's bets - much as I detest "compromise" of any sort.
I'm pretty certain that the preferred Australia wide residential solution based on either WiMax or 3G is not going to eventuate this year and any compromise on that solution would be very wrong. There remains no doubt in my mind that wireless is the only sensible longer term investment - it just doesn't seem 'do-able' right now (by Exetel).
I've made many comments over the past three years about the doubtful longevity of ADSL2 DSLAM investment in anything less than a major 'roll out' and, even then, the risks inherent in the growing number of unknowns involved in deploying hardware based on 'standards' and technologies that are rapidly evolving. Like everything else in technology the obvious part of that caution is true with higher capability/higher speed hardware being avaialble today at almost half the cost of 2 - 3 years ago and giving every indication, as with all silicon based technology, of tracking that same curve. Whether subsequent retro-fit processes will address some of those issues is obviously unknown to me - my previous view stands that the payback period on such investments was unlikely to reach 5 years. I could be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time.
So, unless something changes in the next two weeks, we will break the 'grand plan' into three steps and give ourselves time to see what happens in the residential market over the next few months but, if possible, put in place a sensible start that will allow an 'instant' acceleration once the political scene (in terms of "broadband") becomes clear.
Alternatively maybe it would be better to use the upcoming election as a reason (not an excuse) to defer all decisions until the new year.
....but, from memory, wasn't that what we did last November?