John Linton ....our planet's inviolable law....for both its inhabitants and their activities.
I read this:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203471004577140841495542810.html?mod=WSJ_Tech_LEFTTopNews
earlier this morning and thought about how Kodak used to be an icon of the NYSE. I also, I must admit, smiled wryly at the fact that a few months ago Kodak rejected Exetel's proposal to use our data services (despite having had a 'test link' with us that had delivered 100% up time at nothing less than maximum speeds for two years) on the basis that we were not a 'tier one provider'. For Kodak, a 100 year old pioneer of photography for the masses as well as innovation and delivery of commercial and military photographic services, to face extinction is sad.
I don't know how many tiny/small/medium telecommunications providers have been bought out or simply shut up shop over the past five years since Telstra decided to get out of wholesaling - but it's a pretty large number. I do understand that the number of blacksmiths in Australia and around the world fell dramatically after WW1 and the demand for typewriters has disappeared along with Smith Corona, Imperial, Olivetti etc. Similarly finding a 'cut throat razor' or a petticoat hoop maker would defy the ingenuity of almost every person in everyday life. Change is omnipresent in every aspect of life. The ubiquity and constant technical/engineering development of the mobile telephone handset and the network it uses has signaled the end of wire line telephone since it was first introduced some 30 years ago and it would be a brave pundit who predicted that any wire line calls will still be made in 20 years time....don't say "fibre will ensure fixed line telephone calls are still being made" - that is a silliness that should be left to lying morons like Stupid Stephen and Juliar Faustus.
The Kodak story this morning is a reminder of the fact that when it comes to technology "size" is not any form of protection - in fact it is almost certainly the reverse. It should be a reminder to the people who bleat about 'economies of scale' and 'synergies' that there is only one economy of scale that has ever worked in commerce and that is a monopoly that prevents new technologies from being introduced that disturb the cosy current arrangements. Economy of scale in producing photographic film worked just fine until the 'invention of the digital camera and then its inclusion in a mobile telephone hand set - after that all your film making manufacturing and processing facilities and distribution outlets around the world became so much unused real estate and redundant employees. Of course, it doesn't happen overnight and it is always clearly signaled years/decades in advance. Tragedy only happens when you choose not to see the signals and blindly blunder on doing 'what always has been done'.
The current obvious example of this is the Labor government's 'NBN2' business plan that is based on wire line telephone revenue to attempt to make it look viable.In case anyone hasn't noticed the ONLY reason that copper telephone lines are still in use is that they are required to make ADSL available. Will that be the case in 10 years time? Well, no - because by then even the lowest cost wire line telephone call will be made by mobile services and a fair proportion of main stream internet usage will also use mobile devices - read the GSM road map - it has been pretty exact in its predictions for 30 years. Right now most people's wire line telephone call bill (excluding the line) has shrunk from an average of almost $30.00 a month to an average of less than $12.00 a month over a period of less than ten years Telstra has compensated for that loss of revenue by continually raising the monthly rental cost of the actual telephone line. (hands up for those of us who can remember when a Telstra telephone line rental was $10.00 a month?).
Just how many benighted residential customers will not be using either VoIP or mobile (or a combination of both) to make 100% of their telephone calls by 2020? I wouldn't want to be basing a residential fibre roll out on receiving too much telephone call revenue beyond this decade.
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