John Linton ......and even ignoring one of the better known condemnations of statistics they almost certainly never were.
I don't do as much 'research' as I used to having passed that responsibility on to someone with a much more incisive mind than I have which reduces the 'numbers' information gathering quite substantially. I still read quite widely and scan the information sources I have used for a very long time to attempt to keep up to date with the major moves in the data communications industry. The ABS will release their report on data communications numbers in early April which, despite the dubious sources of its information, represents one of the key indicators of overall trends in Australia.
Having a nit picking mind I always keep the half year results reported by Telstra and Optus, and a couple of other companies that might be judged to report accurately, in a rough table form which I share with two other long term acquaintances who, for their past sins, are still actively involved in the Australian Communications business. Over the years we have jointly 'improved' this tracking table to the point that, at least for us, it has some meaning and is useful within our own businesses as some sort of guide to the future. Like all tools it has constantly changed in scope (and size) over the years but it is useful to put the time into as it is far more accurate than anything publicly available...at least for my and my acquaintance's limited purposes....if for no other reason than we each incorporate our own different company's data as the principal correlation 'vector'.
The half yearly ABS statistics are always 'later' than the half yearly ASX reports so this minor marketplace analysis exercise is never going to be timely enough to provide real value to companies of Exetel's size but the rigidity and rigour of only using 'real numbers' is useful in ensuring that we have a better idea of where the Australian industry is moving towards. As simplistic examples of how this basic analysis has influenced Exetel over the last seven years our investments in wireless broadband, business data services and non-Australian back office services all originally came from this 'analysis'. Similarly our decisions NOT to invest in residential DSLAMs and to pull back from pursuing ADSL residential growth over the past three years was also 'suggested' by this report. I am not claiming that any of those decisions was either correct or couldn't/wouldn't have made by other means - just as examples of how 'research' does produce interesting information sometimes.
The recent reporting season (I haven't seen TPG's figures yet) showed that, irrespective of the spin attached to them, almost all communications companies had a pretty forgettable Jul - Dec 2010. Some, like Telstra, had their worst six month period that I can remember and Optus' results were, at best, disappointing. Exetel's own half year results were, at the kindest evaluation, dreary and those of the other two 'contributors' were even drearier than Exetel's. If you were going to 'rate' Exetel's results for the half year, purely on figures with no 'spin', a sensible analyst would rate them as somewhere in the bottom half of the 10 companies evaluated.The only good thing, if there can be a good thing in such a performance, was that Exetel actually finished two places 'higher' than was predicted in June 2010.
So much for statistics - the better way to look at the period is that the company survived one of the toughest six months I can remember without any 'damage' and, spin aside, put in place several major developments that may well 'pay off' throughout 2011.
Now, it's past time to drag myself away from my computer and enjoy this early Autumn day in Sydney which, fortunately, is not located on an earthquake fault line nor located in an area where cyclones and floods, nor bush fires and droughts wreak havoc on a regular basis....but then I am not as optimistic as the people who do and I can read signs that say "Flood Plain" or notice blackened trees by the side of the road and I do understand what "ring of fire" means and where the areas that it affects are located.
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