John Linton I re-read the sparse 'facts' relating to the 'NBN2' over several attempts yesterday. This is a difficult thing to actually try and do because despite the 'millions' of column inches about the subject there actually are no facts on the public record concerning this particular political stunt. All anyone who attempts this exercise can find some two years on from its announcement is a plethora of opinions ranging from completely uninformed to totally idiotic. THERE ARE NO FACTS. What there are, after two years of zero progress, are less claims of how beneficial an 'NBN2' will be and the beginning of the realisation that the Emperor really doesn't have any clothes a la:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/broadband-plan-is-smoke-and-mirrors/story-e6frg6zo-1225917689577
which simply re-states what I have been saying for the past three years plus adding some current figures from the OECD. I don't know whether at any time in Australia's history that any national government has proposed to spend the then equivalent of $A40 billion dollars without a single attempt at having any form of costing done and checked by Treasury but if there ever has been one - I can't find it. The only fact that can be established about the 'NBN2' is that there are no facts - only comments from people who have no knowledge about anything.
So, what can a company of Exetel's size do about considering whether or not it's possible for us to offer fibre services in Australia to residential users (we already offer fibre services to many hundreds of business users in every State capital city in Australia (including Hobart) and have done for several years. Well, one of the surprising things that appear to be a FACT is that Exetel currently provides more broadband services via 'real' fibre than any other ISP in this country other than Trelstra and Optus on their decade old HFC and Foxtel services. Based on public statements and some 'minor research' it appears that Exetel's combined customer base on the Telstra Point Cook, Opticomm and NBNCo (Tasmania) may well exceed the combined number of customers of iinet, Internode and iPrimus put together! Now that's a FACT that would probably surprise any reader of that statement. Of course our combined customer base on those three services barely exceed 100 users but such is the current take up of fibre at this moment in time it nevertheless remains a pretty accurate assessment.
Irrespective of the accuracy/inaccuracy of the assessment above what is very definitely true is the FACT that we have as much or more first hand experience of delivering fibre services over three completely different 'carrier' networks as EVERY other communications company in Australia except Telstra and Optus. We also have first hand knowledge of the financial and commercial situations that a 'new carrier' may employ in building 'enthusiasm' for their particular fibre offering. What we obviously cannot possibly know is what an unaccountable network builder (the 'NBN2') could offer services at to cover up any deficiencies in its internal costings - only a bunch of egomaniacal know nothings with access to Sovereign Government borrowing capacities can know that....that would be the current and previous Labor "governments" for the slow on the uptake.
So, the only issue that concerns us is what Exetel might be able to do in terms of providing fibre broadband services when they become more generally available which we have no information about via our own discussions with NBN Co nor can we find any in the public domain.Presumably the screech owl will have to eventually make public what she bribed her way in to office with (one of her apparent bribes was to ditch the "carefully" planned roll out of the 'NBN2' to divert it all to New England and the NSW mid North Coast - and, boy, does that say it all as to how "carefully" and "detailed" the current state of the roll out has been planned). Personally, I think that exactly exemplifies what the Labor 'NBN2" really always was and is - a political stunt to win votes from the stupid welfare dependent mentality child voters.
My best assessment is that there will be no mainland connections before mid 2012 but it really doesn't matter. Two, perhaps three, things become pretty obvious for a company of Exetel's size. Firstly we need both a direct contract with 'NBN2Co' and another relationship with a much bigger wholesale customer of 'NBN2Co' - such as Telstra or Optus. Secondly we need to learn as much as we can about the likely methods the also rans in the current broadband providers will use to deal with the scenario that will develop of having a single source of customer connectivity owned by the government. And, possibly, thirdly we will need to use whatever attractive aspects that may remain about our company to work with one of the major two providers to maximise their returns from their rusting iron (their ADSL2 dslam investments).
The June 30th ABS figures on the broadband markets are almost certainly out by now and they will give a further indication of where things may be heading.
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