John Linton One of the problems we, and I assume many other, communications providers, are facing today is not only the uncertainty of what future there will be if the 'NBN2' continues to proceed after next Saturday week but even if there is a change in government what the future will actually become. At the moment there is a continuing 'wave' of price changes and service positioning that makes it very difficult to see what can be provided in the future without losing more money than can be sustained. I am wondering whether it's sensible for Exetel to spend the increasing time that's required to maintain an aggressive 'presence' in the residential broadband markets or simply do what's required to maintain a sensible level of residential business and concentrate on more predictable areas.
If the current government is re-elected (which has to be the likelier of the two results) then a sensible person who is responsible for contributing to the decisions made by a company of Exetel's size would have to very carefully evaluate whether or not it would be possible to remain in the business of providing residential services through the even greater period of chaos that would then ensue. I have been expressing the view since the 'NBN2' was 'announced' to cover up the ludicrously stupid election promise of the 'NBN1's' collapse in early 2008 that it wouldn't be possible for company's of Exetel's size to survive the years of turmoil that would then become the residential communications marketplace. I have not changed that view and Exetel continues to put a great deal of effort in to building a corporate sales force and moving its monthly revenue away from dependence on residential ADSL and associated services. While we have achieved some progress in that endeavour we are still a long, long way away from 'safety'.
In the, far less likely, event that there is a change of government there has been nothing spelled out about the immediate future of the 'NBN2' other than relatively vague statements about that a coalition government would scrap it and put in place the provisions for providing assistance to the current carriers to extend the coverage of faster services into regional and country areas - probably via wireless broadband - but who knows....I certainly have zero idea. However the turmoil that now exists in the residential ADSL and related services markets will not suddenly end with a change of government and therefore it is almost certainly sensible to make decisions based on dealing with the current situation on the basis that nothing will change very much between now and early 2010 and if the 'NBN2' proceeds then nothing will change for more than two years of progressively increasing chaos.
An unpleasant prospect for companies like Exetel.....and quite possibly for other companies too. It seems to me that we have a number of choices which will have to be made once the election result is determined...none of which are particularly pleasant. A true no win situation if ever there was one.
I sat in on a fairly low level 'this is how we see it' briefing by Telstra yesterday on their, low level, version of the state of the current Australian communications marketplaces and the companies that provide services to those marketplaces. Nothing new/unknown to us or nothing even very interesting was presented in terms of information but I suppose the interesting thing was some sort of insight in to how Telstra would like 'the world' to see the current state of the various marketplaces rather than how people, such as me, actually see them - basing our two different views on the same publicly available information (there was nothing 'secret' about the information being shared). What was most interesting, to me, was that some of the information disregarded the published 'facts' seemingly to allow some sort of pre-determined view not to be 'upset' by reality.....but that might be too harsh a view.
It reminded me that I must re-examine my own views on what is happening in the market places that effect Exetel because it is quite likely that I have made the same errors in trying to fit what I read and see into my own pre-determined view of what is happening and will probably happen. It has never been more important to understand the facts absolutely correctly than it is today and I am becoming fearful that I may be wrong in the conclusions I am forming.
Not a pleasant apprehension to permeate a persons thinking.
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