John Linton
The CEBIT 'update' on the 'NBN2' didn't provide anything new but the 'slide show' has been updated:
http://backoffice.ajb.com.au/images/galleries/satellite.png
and uses some new pictorials. It's hard to see what it's purpose was - in announcing the 'NBN2' (after de-announcing the 'NBN') the current gubmant was very rubbery about how much of Australia's population would get a "fast broadband service" and to have a pretty graphic telling the average Australian what they already know - that 10% of Australians will be unlikely to get it doesn't warrant the cost of producing a set of slides that show that......unless you have nothing else to say which appears to be the case for the 'NBN2' for some time. Most people who have been around the industry for more than five minutes understand Australia's topography and that it is easier to deliver network services in Sydney's CBD than it is in aboriginal settlements in the Northern Territory. Maybe satellite technology has now managed to defy the laws of physics but I can't imagine how anyone could get "fast broadband" from a satellite service. How NBNCo will deliver wireless broadband was also not explained - or perhaps I missed that bit.
Meanwhile the 'discussions' between Telstra and the NBNCo continue in the attempt to remove Telstra as a future fibre alternative provider and those discussions are 'scheduled' to reach a conclusion 'in the not too distant future'. That will be a pretty interesting event which, in my uninformed opinion, will decide the future of the 'NBN2' at this very early stage of its deployment. No deal with Telstra = no 'NBN2' - irrespective of whether the current gubmant gets to cling to power in the next election or not - there has never been 'room' in Australia for two national residential networks and if that's the way it plays out then both entities will get in to an inextricable financial mess. It will be good, for wholesale customers and therefore for residential end users, at least for a while, to have a real choice between competing networks but that will simply ensure that both networks will remain financially unviable.
One thing that has become clear to me after only two weeks of 'selling' fibre services as part of Telstra's Point Cook trial is the immense difficulty that NBNCo (and Telstra for that matter) are going to face in providing the 'feet on the ground' to do the physical end user connections. I understand that FoxTel in their early days eventually managed to cope with having to actually terminate the service within the customer's premises but our early experiences with Telstra fibre installs that require the customer to be present and the logistics involve show this is not going to be an efficient process that can be accurately estimated in terms of the time any individual installation will take. Of course it is very, very early days - but it certainly isn't as simple as activating an ADSL service on an already installed telephone line. Irrespective of anything else if two fibre network deployers are going to compete on hiring fibre installers it seems to me an already expensive activation process will become even more expensive.
I have to admit that I'm very surprised at the number of fibre applications we are continuing to get from the very small number of potential end users in Point Cook. Before the end of the week (14 working days of 'selling') we will have received more applications than we have ADSL users in Point Cook which has taken us several years to acquire. Of course the rejection rate we are experiencing is also surprisingly large and obviously our application intake is boosted significantly by the other wholesale providers who have apparently signed on for this 'test period' have yet to begin accepting applications for reasons best known to themselves. I will be fascinated to see how these situations develop over the coming weeks. I would think that Telstra's wholesale prices will continue to be much more expensive for fibre services as they are for ADSL services but where there is no competition from another fibre provider that is not apparently going to be an issue.
We are making progress towards offering fibre services from another fibre network deployer (Opticomm) and, all being well, will makes those services available from the second week of June. This, to us, will be a more interesting scenario as at least two other providers have been offering Opticomm based services for some time now so we will be able to see whether our PFWYU plans are able to attract sensible users in markets where the early adopter enthusiasm has waned. Looking at the pricing offered by those companies who are offering fibre services they have made no attempt to 'innovate' referring to regard fibre as the same service as copper - maybe that is the case.
So, very interesting times - I am assuming that's a good thing.
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