John Linton
.....a bit like ADSL2 replacing dial up.
Optus have announced they will start trialling LTE "some time later this year". Shortly after Optus made that statement Telstra publicly stated the same and yesterday followed up with a reinforcement statement published here:
http://www.itwire.com/it-industry-news/strategy/37697-telstra-to-trial-future-wireless-technology-lte-on-next-g
So many 'commentators' on the actual and likely performance of wireless as a suitable broadband medium speak as though they have been around communications in Australia for a very, very short time. They talk as if 'today's' speeds and coverage are the end point rather than 'five minutes' into the deployment of the technology. It took the best part of 60 years in Australia for the first data stream to be carried over a PSTN copper line and that was at slightly more than 2 kilobits per second. The number of commercial users over the following year could be counted on the fingers of both hands. In the subsequent 50 years the speeds over PSTN copper have increased more than 1,000 fold and 5 year old children in outback Australia use the internet. So, for those uber dumb people who think that technology delivers all it ever is capable of on 'day one' - get some perspective.
The current uber dummies who complain about wireless broad band "coverage" and tower "saturation" presumably weren't born or, if they were, weren't wealthy enough to own an early mobile phone on the Telstra network (no free hand sets in those days). If they had (both been born and had enough money and a COMMERCIAL NEED - no social networking could be afforded at those early rates) they could have joined the chorus of complaints about signal drop out in the centres of Sydney and Melbourne and 'no signal' status for most of the rest of those cities. It's called in technology deployment terms "the start up phase" which is usually riddled with problems and 'glitches' and has a steep curve of improvement. Today, teens and sub teens use mobile phones on trains in tunnels going to school without giving a thought to "coverage" or "saturation" and certainly not cost - it's called in technology "maturity" where everything works at a minimum cost (to the carrier).
So everyone, except for the completely moronic, assumes that a new technology deployment will continue to improve over it's life cycle in terms of availability, speed and cost - because - well - that's what always happens in technology. So why do so many people in Australia's media keep rabbiting on about the "limitations" of wireless broad band? Basically because they have no idea about communications technology or even deployment financial considerations let alone any concept of market place needs and structures. Will wireless ever replace some form of wire line technology as the preferred medium to deliver data services? The simple answer is yes in a large number of demographics and scenarios. Will it replace a wire line medium in every demographic and scenario - clearly not - but that isn't the issue in any way, shape or form. There is little doubt that 'real soon now' there will be more wireless broadband services used in Australia than wire line services and that disparity will keep growing.
It has taken 10 years for ADSL to reach as many people as it's ever going to reach in Australia and the number of users will not grow any further and (depending on the ABS report on the 31st) will decline at some yet to be determined speed over the next few years to some unknown level. Will wireless broadband increase over that same time frame? Undoubtedly and, again, depending on the ABS numbers wireless is already at more than 50% of ADSL numbers which it has achieved in, depending how you count, around three years. Don't under-estimate the impact of that statement. Wireless is in its babyhood technology stage (not even technological infancy) and ADSL is at its peak of technological development...and wireless is out selling new ADSL connections at current estimates of at least 20:1 and maybe higher than 50:1 - again depending on the ABS figures due shortly. This doesn't matter to someone who has an ADSL service with which they are happy and that delivers the results they want from that service. The development path of wireless technology has reached a point where more people who are not totally happy with their ADSL solution will make the change to wireless at an increasing rate as the perceived 'disadvantages' are addressed by roll out schedules and technology developments. Wireless will achieve a penetration rate undreamed of by ADSL suppliers - there is little doubt that it will pass 20 million within the medium term future....more than three times the 6,000,000 ADSL reached in its life time.
So Optus and Telstra's LTE tests later this year have no immediate impact except to signal what may well be delivered in the not too distant future in this country. If you can be bothered to type "LTE" in to your browser and add a suffix like EU or USA or Asia you will see what is happening to wireless broadband around the world. While many, many countries are well ahead of Australia in wireless deployment:
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=189365&f_src=lightreading_gnews
it will happen here in the not too distant future....what effect this ongoing roll out has on Krudd's 'NBN2' is unknown and dismissed at this time.