John Linton
....but still has steps to go before 'reforming' the Australian broadband experience.
I stated my admiration for AAPT's new offerings last year when they introduced the 12 hour unlimited period and commented that it would only be a matter of time before they introduced a 24 hour unlimited offering. So today's:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/no-cap-on-broadband-downloads/story-e6freuy9-1225830271942
announcement (or was it yesterday's? - I'm in Singapore and my times are offset by three hours) is unsurprising in the highly competitive ADSL marketplace that is reality now and for the foreseeable future. As I commented before their were two major turnoffs in the 12 hour offerings - the 5 gb 'peak time' limit and the price. In this step forward AAPT has removed one major limit but have still priced the offering far too high for it to actually blow the market apart - but then there are many steps in a 'revolution' and you can seldom change a commercial market with your personal "Bastille Day".
You would have to think that AAPT's planners have looked at the success (or if you're very cynical) lack of success of the 12 hour unlimited plans and adjusted those plans to the new offers based on their experience to date so they would have addressed what they saw as holding back even higher take up than they previously achieved. Unlike any other company except Telstra and Optus they have far more 'off peak' capacity than any other provider in Australia. How this might affect their 'peak' capacity is also something only they know and no-one else can guess at.
So - the price point. Not really that exciting I wouldn't have thought and, based on my own very limited knowledge and experience, it isn't going to be a market breaker. I actually do understand that the concept of "unlimited downloads" is a powerful phrase - but just what market demographic it appeals to is not clear to me - my guess would be less than 1% of the approximately 6 million current buyers....around 60,000 end users who actually no ISP wants as customers, even at $100.00 per connection and even at AAPT's internal costs this plan will almost certainly run at a loss for that 1% of users. But, of course, I don't have access to AAPT's actual usage figures for their current plans so they may well have facts that show that my assumption isn't correct. My view of the ADSL residential market is that once you charge more than $A40.00 a month for ADSL the market becomes 'resistant' with $A50.00 a month the maximum for any acceptance - beyond $A50.00 the market fades away to tiny percentages which are fine in today's markets but are almost not going to be fine as 2010 wears on.
Of course, I could be totally wrong and AAPT's announced new pricing could be exactly correct. They do have a great scenario with their network configured for massive day time use that dwindles to almost total idleness in the 'off peak' period and an owner (NZTel) with a 50% share in SX. There is also their 15% or so shareholding in iinet and the constant rumours that NZTel are looking to buy out Amcom that would be a precursor to buying out iinet which would provide an interesting set of marketing opportunities. But, and it has to be a but, how many users actually will buy an internet service for $100.00 a month in Australia in early 2010? Not that many when there are unlimited ADSL1 plans available already (despite the Telegraph's head line) and there are significant price/download changes coming from Telstra and Optus in the almost immediate future.
Irrespective of the price, which can be changed at any time, AAPT has set the benchmark for 'download limits' in Australia and the price for that 'standard' will remain a benchmark as 2010 progresses - unless the 60,000 users who consider 300 gbytes to be a minimum requirement all flock to AAPT - in which case some rethinking may be required.
PS: It's nice to be back in Singapore even for a brief stop over to follow up a contact and get a first hand idea of what is going on around the region. It is, as always, so much more impressive than any Australian city in its cleanliness and unbelievable levels of efficiency that we can only dream about in Australia.