John Linton
.....for the callow and uninformed.....what the reality is....the future is often different but seldom better.
Whenever the Australian technology media writes about wireless broadband it invariably seems to include some sort of reference to the effect that "of course, wireless will never replace ADSL as the primary means of a residential user accessing the internet". No facts and figures or third party research are used to support this claim and, in fact, the only 'semi solid' research source (the ABS statistics) that contrast very large growth in wireless broadband compared to no growth in wire line broadband are usually unreferenced or dismissed as 'secondary connections'. I have often wondered why that is because all the 'facts' that I see (and I don't look very hard) are that wireless connections are increasingly replacing low end broadband as the primary or only internet connection in an increasing number of households.
I will be interested in seeing what the December half year ABS report shows in terms of results for wireless and for wire line broadband when they become available later this month and even more interested in how the technology media 'treats them'. Exetels sales of wireless broadband services, while steadily increasing, do not shed any light on the situation though it's obvious from some rough and ready investigative research that some of our own low usage customers are moving from ADSL to wireless and there is little reason to believe that a portion of the new wireless users come from the same demographic. Our percentage of wireless applications compared to ADSL1 256 and 512 applications continues to increase and now exceeds them on a regular daily basis. The simple reason for that is that wireless broadband is lower cost than 512k ADSL1 and more than twice as fast - and getting faster (42 mbps now/84 mbps on the way):
http://www.3gamericas.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=pressreleasedisplay&pressreleaseid=2643
When you add in the saving of no telephone line rental it becomes a financial no brainer.
Every thing I see shows that wireless is continuing to grow at the expense of lower end ADSL and the desire for an increasing number of people to have mobile broadband is becoming more of a must than a desirable for a growing number of users. The sheer logic both financial and technological is so compelling why does anyone who gives it a moment's thought dismiss wireless and in the same breath laud the imminent delivery of the 100 mbps 'NBN2' which will be neither imminent nor 100 mbps? Now, for the increasing number of dummies who have begun reading this blog, please read each word, and its punctuation, in sequence so that you don't write me emails to the effect of "omfg you total loser u r so dumb you think the internet is for email" - spiced with your usual additional expletives. What I am saying is that some 50% of internet users don't use more than 5 gigbytes of downloads/uploads and that any speed over 512k is a bonus as their needs are very similar to mine (ie they don't include playing on line games, stealing other peoples property or anything else that requires large download allowances).
Over 50% of Exetel's users use less than 5 gbytes per month in combined downloads and uploads and I would be surprised if the combined demographics of all other ISPs in Australia show anything much different - almost certainly less than 5 gbytes. Similarly few of that 50% have any current or immediate future plans to change their habits, or are able to increase their budgets, to move to something faster and with more downloads. These users are also, despite the derisory views of 15 year olds, are increasingly using VoIP as they realise how expensive it is having a land line and the call charges for a land line. The move to VoIP by this demographic isn't great at the moment but it is now there when a year ago it wasn't.
Optus recent purchase of spectrum, the plans by both Optus and Telstra to test LTE in Australia this year and the ongoing build out of more HSPA infrastructure by all mobile carriers should, I would have thought, emphasised the growth of demand for wireless broadband Australia wide. Even without contrasting that investment with the slow down/halt in any new investment in ADSL dslam capacity or coverage for ADSL delivery it should be obvious that wireless broadband is increasing faster than can be explained away by 'new/secondary' usage.
Maybe my understanding of the relative growths of the two technologies is completely wrong - but the facts I can find seem pretty clear cut.
PS: Recent media 'exposure' of these random thoughts seems to have caused a very large increase in abusive posts - over 200 yesterday. I resent wasting what little time I have in reading enough of these moron's illiterate missives to delete them so, if the volume of crapulous nonsense persists I will have to deal with that situation.