John Linton One of the things that interested me most about HSPA used on a mobile handset was how successfully it could be used to make VoIP calls and therefore reduce the cost of mobile calls to the customer. VoIP charges via ADSL are pretty much established as major money savers for both residential and business wire line users and there seemed, to me, there would be no reason why the same scenario wouldn't apply to VoIP on a mobile using HSPA.
I have been aware of the various MSN and Skype versions of VoIP over mobile for a while and had seen the proliferation of handsets with 'standard' VoIP firmware built in to them or easily downloadable from the handset manufacturer's web site. Exetel's own testing and the testing of 20+ Exetel customers of the Optus 3G HSPA service over the past few weeks has been overwhelmingly positive in terms of call quality using various different 3G hand sets and different VoIP software implementations. Everything I read in the US and UK technology press is equally favourable - at least as far as I can see.
So I was puzzled by the reaction to Freshtel's "announcement" of its VoIP over 3G plans as 'bagged out' in this article in the Australian yesterday:
http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,24324597-15306,00.html
While the Freshtel service uses WiFi which is not particularly widespread (as opposed to 3G) the 'slamming' of the Freshtel claims of "reducing mobile costs by 50%" seemed to be more than a touch 'hysterical' and quite odd. Obviously the mobile carriers won't like their mobile network being used to remove mobile revenue but, you would have thought, that they would have known that would be an inevitable consequence of offering a data service - Data = VoIP = Data. No amount of 'secret deals' with hardware manufacturers to disable VoIP use is going to be effective - Luddites never win - "Technology always finds a way" (to misquote Jurassic Park).
Personally I wouldn't have thought that a WiFi implementation with 30 cents per minute mobile to mobile calls was particularly worrisome in any event; which made the 'attack' even harder to understand. I would have thought that a 3G VoIP over HSPA service with 15 cents a minute mobile to mobile calls (or free mobile to mobile calls) would be something that would be more attractive and I'll be interested to see what happens when Exetel release such a service in the very, very near future. My guess is nothing - because we are a tiny company and the number of sales we would make would be so small it won't be noticed.
Then again - as seen from their recent annual report - Freshtel is less than a tenth the size of Exetel, so maybe 'tininess' isn't the issue. Perhaps it's the concept that has to be attacked with 'ultimate force' in case more than a tiny number of mobile users ever get to understand that not only can they cut their mobile bill by 50% they can almost certainly cut it by 75% and that you don't actually have to commit to 'capped' plans with all their 'hidden' over charges bringing the whole 'capped plan scam' to a screeching halt? I don't really believe that either.
It's too early, for us, to make any sort of prediction of how many people will sign up for the Exetel HSPA service when it's released next week or how many of the people who do sign up will do so on the basis that they want to use VoIP to reduce their mobile call monthly bills. If pushed I would only be able to say that there would be a lot of zeros after the decimal point of the percentage of the total number of mobile users in Australia.
It does make me wonder though.......about what the mobile carriers in Australia and in other countries have factored in to their future planning in terms of VoIP impact on mobile call revenue. In my simplistic terms HSPA means that mobile calls to land lines in Australia should cost the user 10 cents per unlimited call (plus the IP traffic charge) and mobile to mobile calls should cost 7.5 cents per 30 seconds (plus the IP traffic charge). SMS should cost 5 cents per 160 character message and, using something like fring, many calls would not cost anything at all (except for the IP traffic charge).
Sure, the mobile carrier is getting the IP charges (which are relatively expensive compared to land lines but very inexpensive compared to mobile call charges and SMS charges). However all those mobile networks have been built on usage and cost and sell price assumptions that are different to IP charge assumptions. Doubtless all of the 'facts' of possible VoIP usage over HSPA have been carefully considered and dealt with by every mobile network owner. As the article points out - the actual per minute charges if a user actually uses their full 'cap' are a fraction of the 'head line' rates which means that the mobile carriers are charging far less than they used to for calls.
I'm beginning to wonder whether the mobile carriers 'experts' saw pure data services as net added revenue and didn't fully take in to consideration that data (via VoIP) would actually cannibalize their over priced voice minute revenue and their 'super cash cow' - SMS revenue?
However, at even the most generous estimates, they aren't close to VoIP calls of 10 cents unlimited to land lines and 15 cents a minute for mobile to mobile - at least as far as I can see. The other issue remains that they are fixed minimum spends as opposed to an Exetel type plan which is only pay for the calls you make (at much lower prices). Fixed per mnth charges ALWAYS disadvantage a customer (no sh** Sherlock).
I'm going to buy myself a Nokia 95 (or whatever seems the most appropriate hand set) tomorrow and begin my own personal testing of Exetel's VoIP service over the Exetel HSPA service to see for myself how effective the service is in various different areas. If it's as good as the other people testing it say it is then the next few months are going to be very interesting.