John Linton One of the 'urgent' decisions that Exetel has to make before the end of February is which carrier/aggregator we will use to deliver a broadband over 3G service to Australian customers. Our discussions with both the Singapore based company and the US based company (both aggregators) are very attractive in terms of the initial pricing and the mutual benefits that are involved in initiating and developing a relationship that goes beyond buying minutes. However they both require very significant volume commitments that continue to concern us.
On the other hand we could 'partner' with other Australian companies to gain access 'directly' to one of the three non-Telstra mobile networks as some form of 're-seller' of the current data over 3G services offered by those companies. Having agonised over these decisions for what seems like forever to me it's getting very close to the time when a decision has to be made and I'm still completely uncertain as to what is the best alternative as I see too many downsides in each of the scenarios. Given the uncertainties we shouldn't be making any decision at all until we get much closer to what an ideal solution would be.
I can't help but remember our decision to become one of the first (the first?) ISP to sign up to resell the Unwired wireless based service in Sydney back in May 2004. That was a "sensible" decision at the time although I was uncomfortable with many aspects of the contract. I should have 'listened' to my doubts at that time as they all materialised as the 'worst case' scenario suggested they might do. Not that it was a disaster or anything approaching that description. However it was certainly a disappointment to have expended so much effort building a customer base that exceeded 2,500 (when the total Unwired 'claimed' user base was less than 25,000 with a great deal of doubt about that number) only to be 'commanded' by some new employee they hired to "sign this new contract which completely disadvantages you or we'll make life very difficult for you and your customers". Clearly, and clearly wrongly as it turned out, Unwired had been grateful for our assistance in helping promote the service but after we had done that work they wanted to get rid of their few wholesale customers (none of which had signed and maintained anything like the numbers Exetel had done and, apart from Exetel, they succeeded in doing so). We still have 18 months to run on the 5 year contract they insisted we sign and we still have well over 1,000 Unwired users though the number has continued to decline from the high point reached almost two years ago.
As I'm sure I've stated in previous musings, our ideal solution is an SS7 switch direct connection to a current Australian mobile carrier's network giving Exetel the ability to add true value to a broadband over 3G service. However that remains an unlikely outcome after almost two years of discussions with three of the four available carriers in Australia - two of those discussions being quite seriously advanced but still with no likelihood of imminent success.
So we are left with 're-selling' one of the current mobile carrier's services to which we can add very little value and hope that, over time, we can build sufficient volumes to gain direct network access or use a minute aggregator with no foreseeable direct access to an Australian mobile network. Under these conditions I normally wouldn't make any decision to proceed.
However my fears, irrational or otherwise, that ADSL is going to be a very hard row to hoe in the coming two years and, if I'm even partially correct about Telstra's current and likely future actions, perhaps becoming something that will be impossible to continue with, Exetel needs a 'general' data service to replace ADSL. We have arranged a series of 'final' meetings over the next 14 days and hope to make a decision, even if it's a decision not to make any decision by early March.
There has to be a more enjoyable way to spend this time of my life than making decisions between unattractive options.