John Linton ....it certainly seems to have, if the earlier than usual breeding activities of the local Mosman avia are any sort of guide....but in business?...is the long winter of the communications industry finally coming to an end?
Over the past few days the extremely tough conditions that have prevailed in the various markets in which Exetel is involved have become much easier - almost benign in comparison. I don't know whether this is just some confluence of coincidences and aberrations or whether it is truly a sign that many of the protagonists who have been running such aggressive 'campaigns' have 'run out of steam' simultaneously. Whatever it is, there is a very real 'up turn' being experienced in terms of order intakes across the range of our activities. Perhaps the almost three year 'winter' that has engulfed the Australian communications industry is finally ending?....that is almost certainly wishful thinking though there is a very, very different 'feel' to so many aspects of our business at the moment.
Business has been so hard for so long and so unrelentingly demanding as well as being so unresponsive to almost everything we have tried to make happen that it is now coming as a surprise that in almost every aspect of the business there are signs that most things are becoming easier....perhaps not easier but not so incredibly hard as they have been for so long that when things 'just happen' it comes as an overwhelmingly pleasant surprise.....because we are not doing anything different and, if anything, the general finacial state of Australia is getting bleaker by the day....so it isn't a result of better general marketplace scenarios. It also isn't Telstra abandoning its 'win back' campaigns as they seem to be continuing at the same intensity.
What is noticeable from the daily residential ADSL churn away/churn to reports is the sudden absence of any company but Telstra Retail on the 'away' section and an increase in the range of other companies on the 'to' section. What is also noticeable on the daily business data sales is the much 'bigger contributions' from the newer sales personnel which is making the quite tough new year's targets look too easy to achieve. As well as those two major contributions, Optus mobile sales continue at a rate three times greater than the previous Vodafone based plans and while that is still very, very small in overall marketplace terms it makes an impact on Exetel's profit and cash flows.
Certainly the general business 'news' is overwhelmingly depressing both in Australia and in the EU and US media I read on a daily basis. It seems that 'recession' is a distinct possibility in Europe and the USA which will certainly impact Australia assuming the Bluescope, Qantas, ANZ et alia retrenchments don't already clearly signal that. (two 'international software companies I know of in North Sydney are planning to close their Australian operations before Christmas is some sort of further indication that even the IT business is not experiencing happy times). It just makes it more puzzling that, if only briefly, the 'market conditions' we are experiencing are apparently moving against the general trends.
The current 'good times' are very welcome and I am not complaining at this sudden easing of 'tension' in day to day business activities. It is just a scenario for which I can find no explanation nor can I see any 'tell tales' or other indications in the media or in the 'behaviour' of other companies - quite the reverse in fact. It will be interesting to see how the remainder of August plays out - unless everything suddenly goes in to reverse it will be a better than on target month.
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