John Linton .....an absolutely negative affect on broadband progress in Australia.
There have been several very negative articles in the various print and electronic media over the past few days but I thought Bruce Billson's summary in today's Australian:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23756010-30538,00.html
summed up the various non-Telstra industry views on the uselessness of the Crazy Kevin election sound bite. Billson has obviously been corresponding with a number of Australian telecommunications industry spokespeople and/or has diligent staff who have 'vacuumed up' the various opinions expressed in different media.
While all these manouverings are of little interest to small companies like Exetel (we will do our best to make whatever we can out of whatever eventually transpires - if in fact this pointless exercise in fact continues to a conclusion) there are two aspects that have a significant bearing on decisions we have taken or are about to take.
The first is the fact that the Tasmanian Government appears to be going to bid on a 'partial' basis - i.e. taking advantage of the apparent Stupid Stephen shoot from the hip comment that 'part tenders for specific geographic areas will be considered." As Telstra (and presumably past Federal Governments) have consigned Tasmania to a broadband wasteland via the Telstra monopoly of connectivity between Tasmania and Victoria and its subsequent breathtakingly high per mbps cost of using the Telstra cable, it makes eminent sense for the Tassie government to put its hand up for a chunk of the Federal funding to actually deliver broadband at affordable prices to Tasmanians by having its own network.
Good idea - but it'll never happen because, of course, it would be the start of the AT&T - Baby Bell break up in the USA some 40 years ago. If Tasmania was allowed to build a broadband network using Federal money then what about the other States? Of course TransACT would (I think it's said they already are) registering to bid separately for the ACT separately to the other parts of Australia. (I wonder what the federal tender means to the WA Government Staewide broadband roll out?)
Apart from that; if both, or either, Tasmania and the ACT get to bid and, more ludicrously, actually somehow get to 'win' what a total mess that will make of a "national" broadband strategy and which CEO of a private company in their right mind is going to try and compete with a government owned service in a small State or Territory - assuming the government's concerned found some people competent enough to operate it?
But you get the drift of what is now happening with this mad woman's breakfast concept of a "National" FTTN for $A4.7 billion of your tax dollars? Bear in mind this is from the mental midgets who can't see that a $A21 billion tax surplus couldn't take the hit from the reduction/elimination of petrol excise to reduce out of sight petrol prices in their desire to help "working families" (I assume that's because it would also make it cheaper to fill up the Mercs and BMWs of their class enemies on the Sydney North Shore and Eastern Suburbs).
For a contrary view on reducing fuel excise Ross Gittins argues persuasively here:
http://business.smh.com.au/rudd-needs-to-start-leading-20080525-2i1p.html
Apart from both Telstra and Terria saying "we may not bid and we really don't care if we don't win (a pretty certain outcome if you don't bid) you now have the prospect of separate "State" bids not to mention a bid from one of the most rapacious merchant banks in Australia.
With the tender dead line already shifted back 12 weeks (and that won't be the last extension of time) and the rag tag and bobtail list of potential bidders fragmenting to a crazy extent the other issue is also becoming more obvious - the slow down/cessation of building out current networks by some of the larger carriers as they try and work out what's really going to happen.
As I said, this whole mess is irrelevant to Exetel with the exception of what really should happen in Tasmania and, to a lesser extent, the ACT where we have just signed long term agreements to put in PoPs and back haul and Telstra Wholesale connections. Our investments may well be 'trivial' in terms of other companies infrastructure investments but they are big chunks of cash for private equity providers (us).
While I fully understand that the chances of a FTTN actually being built at all are now are now less than they were a month ago and the chance of anything being actually available in Tasmania and the ACT in less than 2 - 3 years is equally uncertain it has become something that we have to consider for the first time - as opposed to doing what we have done to date which is to take the view that it'll never happen in any realistic time frame so there are far more important things to worry about.
Because Rudd is clearly crazy enough and Stephen is certainly stupid enough in these early stages of ignoring the reality that government means you actually have to do things (rather than criticise the opposition for not doing things) to cling tenaciously to their stupid, completely unconsidered 'election promise' there might well be some funding for separate broadband structures in places like Tasmania, the ACT and the NT and 'rural Australia - anyone remember OPEL?
I mean - it makes perfect sense doesn't it - by giving money to 'remote areas' to build separate networks and point out that all capital cities and large regional cities already have ADSL2 - hey presto - 98% of Australians DO have access to high speed broadband!!
And you also get to break the Telstra monopoly with Telstra's total complicity - or should that be implicity?!
This shambolic nonsense is going to run for a very long time yet.