Wednesday, February 3. 2010I Always Thought That 51%..........John Linton ...was a pretty good percentage of decisions to get correct in business life, though I kept being told that 95%+ was what was really required. Maybe I have always been wrong in my assumptions. When I was much younger and was sent by IBM and other multi-national employers to various 'management schools' a lot of emphasis was always placed on how a manager's main responsibility was to get the decisions they were called on to make correct all of the time. This concept was given a lot of time in almost every course I attended with great emphasis on taking as much time as was needed to gather all the facts required to make any single decision and to allow for consultation with as many people as could be considered as able to add insight and valuable opinion to the process and final decision. It made a lot of sense and doubtless allowed 'correct' decisions to be made the overwhelming majority of the time. However, I came from the sales part of these companies where decision making time frames seldom allowed much, if any, consultation to take place and mostly the decisions that needed to be made were during a conversation with a prospective client which limited the decision making consideration time to a few seconds with no ability to 'consult' with anyone. So, over many years, I have had to make most of the decisions I have been involved in without consultation and within a very short time frame - doubtless I could have gone down a different path and never made a commitment without a lot more consultation and consideration but it didn't work out that way. It is also undeniably true that I have made a lot of really bad decisions over my commercial life (and probably more than average in my personal life) but then I have taken the view that a quick bad decision can almost always be quickly reversed and is almost certainly better, on balance, than taking much longer to make a correct decision leaving many things 'on hold'. It would be nice, and highly commercially advantageous, to be able to make the absolutely correct decision well within the time it is needed to be made and to have access to a diverse range of expert opinion against which you could test any assumptions you have decided to rely on - but I haven't run across that scenario over the past 40 or so years. I have seen appallingly bad decisions made, very often, by decision makers who have taken an inordinate time and endless advice before making them and I have seen so many instances of that happening it has, over the years, reinforced my belief that quick and logical with periodic review beats slow and consultative almost every time. My experience has been that any 'incorrect' decision quickly demonstrates that it is incorrect and can be changed, more than once if necessary, before the consultative decision makers have come to their first decision. At Exetel we have a lot of analysis tools (as I'm sure a large number of companies do), which means that the 'consultative' process is unlikely to provide any more facts than can be obtained from our data bases and reports in a few seconds. Whether two heads are better than one (or three or four) is a moot point in terms of facts. In terms of 'problem resolution' multiple view points are always useful and, almost without exception, provide better answers to any problem than a single person - irrespective of how bright and experienced they are. If people are around to consult on any issue then it would be better to utilise such resources but in many fast moving businesses in changing circumstances that is a luxury that few companies can afford.....almost no companies of Exetel's size have such luxuries. So, for many years now, I have adopted the attitude of accumulate facts (not opinions) as widely as possible and from as many reliable sources as possible and always have them at hand because you never know when you might need them. It has worked well enough for a very long time but, recently, I am having doubts about its efficacy. Perhaps the decisions have become too complex. Perhaps the razor sharp mind I used to think I had has dulled with age and too much alcohol. Perhaps the sources of 'facts' I have relied on in the past are no longer as reliable as they once were. I have no idea. It seems to me that I am 'hovering' too close to the 51% level these days and need to change the ways that Exetel is managed.
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John - In my 20+ years of management, I've come across quite a few 'spreadsheet managers'. They've had all sorts of facts and figures but usually are clueless when it comes to predicting buyer behaviour. This is why, for example, accountants should never be put in charge of companies. They make shocking decisions because the spreadsheet tells them so.
The reality is that data provides a quantitative 'bedrock' for decision making, but you must then figure in the qualitative aspects. Though it would appear that buyer reaction can be statistically anticipated, you must always remember that statistics are a measure of what has happened not what will happen. Any predictions formed from them assume that nothing else has changed, and in a competitive and changing environment, that is a huge mistake. A good marketing manager or product manager (not one of the 'lovey' types) fulfills this role and is able to predict what will happen in a market based on both quantitative and qualitative data. In the last couple of days, decisions have been made regarding charges and services. I understand that, perhaps your operational margin has been too slim. However, two things have been immediately apparent to me regarding these decisions. First, I think you've made a mistake in the implementation from a marketing perspective, and second you haven't run some of these things through your legal department (after 20+ years of marketing management I'm now changing professions to law). Good luck with your contemplation, it will hopefully serve you well. Regards, David Comments (3)
Exetel has never had a marketing department/person and there is currently no intention to have one - one of the costs we avoid to keep our prices low.
Legal - we pay strict attention to the laws governing our business. Comments (2)
I realise that the many crap marketing people out there give marketing a bad name. I'm not talking about the lovey-dovey, let's make it puce and see if the customers like it type of marketing. I'm talking about the type of marketing person who is knowledgeable about the product (rare) or has the capability to acquire that knowledge; understands the costs of the business and the need for ROI; and who has an excellent understanding of market behaviours that is not fully based on regression or correlation analysis.
As for legal, I'm not going to point out the liability that you have exposed yourself to on a public forum. But believe me, an error has been made. The question is whether it becomes common knowledge? That is when the real PR nightmare begins. Still, I've spent the time between my last message and this one reading your entries for this year. Interesting reading. Cheers. Comment (1)
John - we all make mistakes - no problem there. It is how we deal with the consequences of those mistakes that is the hard bit.
From my experience Exetel has always provided an option for it's customers to leave without penalty if a change will impact them. The way that this is offered is often a problem for us, as it can easily be read as "we have made this change and if you don't like it you can bugger off"; and I know that that is not the intent. This situation is also a bit like trying to tell a teenager that they have to do something "because I say so". The teenager will react negatively "because they can". Sometimes it is more important to explain why a decision has been made, explain what the mistake was and what impact it will cause if not fixed. This approach will help with the reasonable people (some of whom I notice have been posting negatively on this issue today), but absolutley nothing will ever help with those customers who are never reasonable and are only ever selfishly concerned with getting as much as they can and demanding it as their God given right. Good luck........ Comment (1)
A long time ago a wise person told me that a good year for a manager is where 50% of of decisions turn out to be correct. But what separates a good manager from a bad manager is not the number of good decisions (which will be about the same), rather that a good manager will monitor the results and change the decision if it doesn't work out, before it's too late.
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John ,
of all the descriptions and words used to describe you, I feel this article perhaps describes you best - "Maverick" Exetel CEO John Linton. I'd wear this as a badge of honour. As a loyal Exetel customer, I'm more than happy to be connected with an ISP and CEO that’s described as a Maverick. God knows, we need leader who has the guts to say what he believes in. We don’t need "yes" men, but we need those that are willing to stand by their beliefs. Too many, nowadays say what the masses want to hear. Go hard John, the world needs people with points of view they can articulate to the masses. http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/334841/afact_v_iinet_isps_split_potential_outcomes_/?fp=16&fpid=1 Comment (1)
Bill,
I share your view that "maverick" is not a pejorative term but is simply a synonym for "individual" or,even, as its original meaning - doesn't act like the 'herd'. Comments (2)
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