John Linton
........when you read articles like these:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203739404574294673707660730.html
Now I have never been one of those people who make those stupid "Geez the Koreans have unlimited 100 terabyte fibre so why can't Australia" comments but it's beyond my estimations as to when Exetel could offer streaming video on HSPA to anyone but James Packer and expect to get the bill paid. But I'm heartened to see that there are signs that, at least in the USA, the mobile data providers are moving away from mobiles as ways of making telephone calls to mobiles as ways to entertain and amuse end users because that means the amount of 'amusement per megabyte' will be massively reduced and the cost of using it will therefore reduce.
With LTE and 4/5G the ability to move more data over mobile networks faster, and therefore at less cost will continue the current trend and the cost of establishing and maintaining a mobile network will reduce proportionately moving mobile data services ever closer to the costs of wire line or fibre data services. It is at these brief moments that I am glad that we decided that Exetel would invest its meagre 'risk money' in HSPA instead of ADSL2 DSLAMs 4 years or so ago and while we haven't got any sort of return from that decision (nor do we expect to for many years) I now believe, more firmly than ever, that what looked like a really stupid thing to do back in mid 2005 was quite correct....for us. Unfortunately for those people who need to make such decisions it takes a very long time before you know whether you were correct....if it ever does turn out that way.
It certainly hasn't turned out to be correct so far and there are times when I think it would be nice to have a small ADSL2 DSLAM network in the major cities. I look ruefully at the numbers of our more optimistic estimates of the costs of delivering internet services over our own equipment and think how much further ahead we would be than we are now and think what a mistake I made in dismissing the risk as being too great and the technology held hostage to Telstra. I listen to what is said about the ROIs and growth that other companies have achieved and think that it was a really stupid decision not to go the same way. But the past is another country and regrets do nothing but make you reach for the Scotch so....move on.
The upside is that we have been forced to compete with ISPs who, apparently, have a massive 'cost of goods' advantage over us and we have managed to not only survive but grow at a faster rate than they have while making a profit even though we are, apparently, paying far more for the components of our end user services. Why would that be the case? With the exception of TPG I haven't seen any of the ADSL2 DSLAM owners offer a really 'good deal' on ADSL2 so there must be something I'm missing but, whatever it is, it hasn't hindered Exetel's ongoing growth and it has allowed us to devote the small amount of 'new technology' resources on getting an HSPA service 'launched' and therefore beginning the long learning curve associated with delivering services over a new technology.
So, before I sat down with a cup of coffee to write this, I 'ritually' disposed of the quite bulky documentation we have accumulated over the years on ADSL2 proposals from various providers and will never look at such things again.
The future of residential data communications for tiny companies like Exetel is very definitely wireless.