Thursday, April 9. 2009Tasmania...No Longer An Isle Too Far?John Linton Amidst all the huffing and puffing of 'NBN Mk2' (which I confidently predict will never be built, but that will wait for another day) we are slowly finalising our "return to Tasmania". Now, we don't have a lot of customers in Tasmania and because we have had to suspend providing new services in Tasmania for almost a year now we have got very little 'presence' there and have, of course, lost some of our customers over time as they have moved residences and we haven't been able to provide them with ADSL in their new locations. So, prima face, there is not a good business case for us to spend the money equipping a new PoP and paying the premium pricing required to connect the Tasmanian PoP to Exetel's main land network. In fact there is no business case at all based on the immediate future income/expenditure considerations. However that isn't why Exetel is in business and the future could look very different. We have only ever offered ADSL1 in Tasmania as neither Optus nor Powertel/AAPT offered ADSL2 (again for the same Telstra back haul cost reason). We will need to provide ADSL2 if we are to have any chance of making a break even on residential services. We have looked at doing this in a number of ways and have pretty much concluded that only doing it ourselves would make any sense but we will determine whether or not the imminent change of management within Telstra makes re-selling Telstra ADSL2 remotely feasible (I would guess not but it is something that needs to be determined). Even if Telstra became commercially realistic about wholesale ADSL2 costs to small wholesale customers the cost to Exetel is almost certainly going to be more than double what we could do it for ourselves and we would need to be able to offer the same ADSL2 pricing in Tasmania as we do anywhere else. Reducing our exchange to PoP cost to less than we currently pay Optus or Powertel for 'main land' ADSL2 services would allow us to absorb the much higher costs of terminating the customers data on Exetel's main land network and therefore we could achieve the same or better pricing. "Politically" speaking (in Tasmania) it may well be a significant 'plus" to be able to offer ADSL2 services in Tasmania at prices that are LOWER than are offered in other States - albeit only to people in the larger Tasmanian population areas. I think it would certainly get us some 'free press' to kick start our return to providing services in Tasmania! The latest gigantic lie by Krudd does affect this decision (not because it affects my view that NBN Mk2" will never be built) but because he has really painted himself in to a corner in trying to tie up the five Tasmanian federal electorates with more pig ever fitted in to a bigger wooden container than at any time in Australia's political history. By promising to bank roll a FTTH service to Tasmania's 400,000 or so citizens "to be started by mid-2009" he has created a problem for Telstra and everyone else who has currently put ADSL2 infra-structure into Tasmania (and there is not much of it). An electricity company such as Aurora does have the relatively easy means of quickly connecting all of Tasmania's residences and businesses to FTTH and federal money makes the cost problems that have prohibited this in the past simply "go away". Even the cost to the end user problem is going to be at least partially solved by Krudd needing to demonstrate that a FTTH service will be "affordable" though that, as they say, "is going to be the real trick". His creative accounting minions will be able to manipulate the numbers and that will certainly provide short term benefits to Tasmanian end users before the Auditor General gets around to looking at what he did. So, assuming that Krudd is forced to actually make good on his promise to fund the Tasmanian State government's Aurora roll out and that some end users begin to get switched on in the not too distant future there would appear to be an opportunity to become an Aurora/Tassie Govt/Krudd/Whoever wholesale buyer of services competing on a "level playing field" (and if you believe that you will believe anything). What should be true (oh dear - am I always going to be this naive?) is that a small company like Exetel would be able to use its better than anyone else's low cost operation to compete with Telstra et alia better than we have been able to do anywhere else in Australia by offering the lowest cost data services to Tasmanian residential and small business users. However that's all in a pretty unclear and totally undetermined future so back to reality. One reason for proceeding with our own ADSL2 services in Tasmania (should we end up deciding to do that) is based on the acknowledgment that re-selling Telstra's ADSL1 services is not exactly either financially viable or even appropriate to Tasmanian end users in mid 2009 and reselling the super high priced Telstra ADSL2 is not something that we have become cynical enough to do (unless the "new Telstra" suddenly prices its services correctly).So we have to find other services to provide to make the investment even marginally sensible - ADSL1 alone is simply not going to be sufficient. The other reason is that we would base a future Tasmanian business plan on business and government services for which we need our own DSLAMs in at least Hobart and Launceston (which currently are possible) and possibly Devonport and Burnie (which may not be possible). We would deploy standard ADSL2 ports in those locations for residential users but more importantly would deploy 10 - 40 mbps/40 mbps ports for business and government users. Well, that's the theory and it is a long way down the path to becoming 'reality' - the only issue now is taking a guess at if/when an FTTH in at least parts of Tasmania becomes a reality and what the likely wholesale cost to a small company like Exetel will be. Krudd's demonstrated record of telling the big lie and then moving on makes that more difficult than it should be but in this instance he has very little option but to be seen to deliver now he has been so publicly humiliated. If he doesn't deliver, then those massively pig containered 5 electorates may well 'swing the other way'. PS: I'm indebted to P J O'Rourke for so perfectly summing up Krudd's words and actions over the past 18 months: "Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys." Trackbacks
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so whats the HSDPA reception like in Tassie anyhow?
I know you are going to sell a lot of aerials and quiet a few repeaters. bravo for maintaining the rage Comment (1)
Telstra HSPA - tops, works almost everywhere you can drive or walk to without a sherpa.
Optus - blah. Only works in places you see BMW X5 (Metro only) Voda - meh. Toyota Kluger territory. Large towns and main highway. I've deployed multiple telstra hspa connections for work using Ericsson w25 for citrix access. Looking forward to Exetel monumental return soon. SludgePond contract up in next couple of months. Comment (1)
Personally I don't know.
I have always taken the view that new services get better over time and my experience to date with my own HSPA services (used almost exclusively in Sydney and NSW regional areas) is that they work better today than 6 months ago (in terms of increased download speeds) but have always been just fine for general browsing and VoIP. Comments (6)
If you deploy DSLAMs, which are then superceded by the NBN (assuming a good price) - couldn't you then re-deploy them in mainland areas where Optus is full and you have a number of ADSL1 customers wanting to move to ADSL2 but can't?
This would reduce the risk, depending on setup/dismantling fees (including telstra exchange access fees). Comment (1)
My assumption would be that ADSL2 (with VoIP) can be provided, profitably, at such a low cost a percentage of people would prefer that service if it cost half what a FTTH service cost - which I'm pretty sure would be the case.
Comments (6)
John,
I respect your views on Australian broadband but i feel you are becoming far too political. I am far from some raving old commie and did actually vote against Gough Whitlam twice and keating however, you appear to have become an almost entirely political person and your Exetel broadband commentary seems to have slipped to a secondary importance. Why do you use an insulting teenage term to refer to an Australian elected prime minister. Your not 15 years old john. I am interested on what you feel would be the best way forward to sort out the current mess Australian broadband finds itself in -- this has been contributed too over many years by all political persassions. Can you tell me what Australia should do to sort this mess out - your a smart man with knowldge from many years in the industry, its time to say what needs to be done, if you dont put forward what you feel should be done how can we read and take forward your suggestions. John - you should decide if you want to be a polital commentator or an owner of the most progressive ISP in AU. Comments (2)
As this isn't my blog I've resisted making this comment for quite some time.
Your almost constant constant comments are the only ones I find annoying of regular names I see in comments to this blog. You are often wrong and often provoking. I wish you would stop commenting forever. Comment (1)
You are often wrong and often provoking.
Sometimes discussions have different points of view and what one person considers as provoking may in fact be the catalyst for creating constructive input from all parties. Being wrong is also a subjective conclusion depending upon your point of view. Comments (2)
I'm not 15 years old and have a better than average command of the English language and am relatively well educated and far better than averagely well read.
This blog is simply my daily record, written at the start of each day of what is on one person's mind at that time. Hence the title - "personal musings". Of course, it is personal and it's located on an unpublicised location that doesn't permit exterior links and is not intended to do anything but allow me to record my personal views and some of the things that occur to me and sometimes concern me about what I do each day to make my tiny contribution towards the country and societies in which I live. As 'an old man' who has now worked in a country I first came to at 17 with no relatives or friends for support I have formed views of what I have experienced that mark my views today. One of the things that I despise, and always have, is the creepy dishonesty of ALL politicians but particularly those of the Australian Labor party who, without exception in my 40+ years here have totally f***ed the country and me personally each time they've manouvered their snouts in to the main part of the trough. The current super creep, Krudd, has set an all time record for barefaced lying while bankrupting the country faster than even Whitlam achieved. As in the past Labor governments this becomes most obvious to me in the areas in which I have some knowledge - communications and IT and I therefore, having both knowledge and a good mind, am able to see just how lunatic Labor politicians really are. I express my views, personally and publicly, in my own particular ways and, as with the rest of my life, I don't give a toss whom they may offend - like this blog - no-one has to read it if they don't like what I write just as no-one has to listen to me when I speak. Krudd has f***ed the Australian communications industry with his lunatic lying and total crass stupidity since he "announced" his crazy "NBN" in August 2007. Don't lecture me on my inadequacies of political comprehension - that c*** Krudd has made my personal life infinitely harder than it should be and has made the lives of every one I know infinitely harder with his peacock strutting and the sheer breathtaking magnitude of his crazy lying. I hope I've clarified my position. Comments (6)
"I am interested on what you feel would be the best way forward to sort out the current mess Australian broadband finds itself in -- this has been contributed too over many years by all political persassions.
Can you tell me what Australia should do to sort this mess out - your a smart man with knowldge from many years in the industry, its time to say what needs to be done" I am also interested in your thoughts on what you think would be the best option for Australia at this point in time, especially in light of what has already occurred with the NBN tender process, and the cancellation of the OPEL concept. Hypothetically, what would you do, if you had the power to make it happen??? No pressure, no politics, no bullshit... just your personal view as an educated person with a lot of personal knowledge and experience of the subject, and the current situation. I do hope you can separate what's best for Exetel, from what would be best in the national interest. They aren't necessarily the same thing. Comment (1)
Firstly, I don't ever express views that aren't my own.
In terms of that incredible pig ignorant waste of space Krudd's insane stupidities regarding "National Broadband" election winning promises - they arent even worth commenting on. The man is a pathetic, incorrigible liar. If you don't understand that pieces of shit like Krudd have absolutely NO PLACE in making decisions on the future of Australia (because their ony interests are the short term future of their own snout in the trough and they have zero knowledge) then nothing I can say will be of any value. 100 mbps connectivity for 90% of Australians is crassly stupid and totally irrelevant in any expenditure scenario - it's a mindlessly insane vote grabbing piece of arrant charlatanism. This country/continent needs water in the Southern half - if you can't see that then you are blind. Internet? You have to be joking? It isn't vaguely important if you can't feed your population - try visiting Somalia. The three carriers, who by definition have to compete with each other will deliver communications services that are commercially long term viable. and will do so at realistic costs without one cent of public hand outs by Austraia's tax payers. Nanny State "internet for all" is crass vote winning stupidity. God help Australia from the stupidity of it's electorate and the dishonesty of the Labor Party. Comments (6)
Personally I don't mind what JL or any other blogger says about the ministry -it's a personal blog after all.
But I wish the left-inclined would stop reviving "elected prime minister", a phrase much misused in 1975. PMs are not elected by anybody - but appointed by the GG for their ability to obtain the passage of supply bills. I remember voting last for a local member and senators, nobody else. 1972-75 was a horror I would not again inflict on anybody. No intelligent person on any side of parliament who was there would want a repeat. Comment (1)
If it has become financially and practically sensible to install Exetel ADSL2 DSLAMs into Tasmania, what is stopping you from doing the same thing on the bigger island?
Comments (2)
WHat he said.....
Comment (1)
On the 'main land' Optus has over 400 exchanges we can use at a price that, while not wonderful, is commercially acceptable for eliminating the 'risk' to us in terms of ROI.
There is no equivalent in Tasmania....also not the sme level of duplicaed exchange installation. Comments (6)
So would it be correct to say that the exchanges that have no Optus presence, are not financially viable for Exetel to install their own equipment.
I know of mainland Exetel customers who are stuck on ADSL1 because their exchange has not been deemed suitable for upgrade. Comments (2)
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