John Linton I read several UK print media publications today and found three interesting articles on the progress of HSPA in the UK and in the EU generally. One of the articles was on testing the about to be released 7.2 mbps service and the methodology they used was pretty much the same as what I have done with the commercially released 3.6 mbps service - they connected in different population density ares and on trains and cars. Their results mirrored mine, unsurprisingly. Where 7.2 mbps was enabled they got between 6.6 and 6.9 mbps as a maximum and as they moved to lower population density districts they dropped back to 3.3 mbps and then steeply to 500 kbps and ended up at 50 - 60 kbps.
Another article was based on speculating on the 14.4 mbps HSPA services due to be released in time for the Christmas marketing frenzy and what the impact on current wire line based services these new speed HSPA services would make. W - and at arouth the current dowload/upload inclusions being around 6 gb in most EU countries for the equivalent cost of $A50.00 the press seems to believe that by Christmas the same price will be buying 8 - 10 gb and with speeds in excess of 10 mbps down that is a true ADSL 'killer'.
The third article speculated on the reality of 150 mbps services becoming available towards the end of 2009/early 2010 and what these service could be used for. They didn't reach any conclusion except that no current application that was likely to be used over such a service needed such speeds but that if such speeds were achieved then they would free up the HSPA bandwidth allowing the penetration of HSPA to increase over the current spectra licences.
It was interesting speculation and, in terms of Exetel and Australia, it was sobering reading. I, obviously, don't know what the Australian mobile carriers will be doing over the coming 12 months, other than attempting to tear each other apart, but it seems likely that they will be doing pretty much the same as the EU mobile carriers. The current ADSL revenue streams controlled by Telstra would be a truly juicy target fr the HSPA providers to aim at. Telstra's alleged "mums and dads" user base that downloads less than 1 gb per month would be a 'no problemo' market sector to aim an HSPA service at.
There are, based on pure guesswork, probably over 2,000,000 low download Telstra users. These users are paying around $30.00 to Telstra for an ADSL service with almost no included downloads.
How easy would it be for Optus and Vodafone to offer these 2,000,000 customers a 1 gb service at 50% of what they are currently paying Telstra? (and of course the low end usage customers of every other Australian ISP?).
Pretty easy - and pretty compelling.
With both Vodafone and Three already at the 5 gb for $A40.00 stage of their marketing campaigns it doesn't need much imagination to understand that 3 gb of downloads takes care of somewhere around 65% (possibly more) of the TOTAL current ADSL user base.
Of course, ADSL2 still has a speed advantage and getting the full coverage of 7.2 mbps across Australia is still some distance in the future but HSPA, aggresively rooled out and marketed has the potential, and probably the actuality, of ding this:
1) "Churn Away" all of the current low end users from the ADSL broadband ISPs
2) Reduce new low end sign ups with ADSL ISPs to virtually zero
3) Increasingly "churn away" mid range ADSL users.
4) Reduce new mid range sign ups for ADSL services
5) Leave current ADSL ISPs with no lucrative low download customers (which they depend on to balance their high download custmers) and therefore drive them out of business with their only customer base being unprofitable high download users.
Too simplistic? No doubt about it.
An obvious marketing campaign from at least three Australian mobile carriers? Absolutely.
Interesting few months coming up.