John Linton .....but it takes a great deal of time to determine what is information and what is mis-information.
There are always too many aspects of the communications in Australia (possibly in many other countries) for anyone that I have ever met to fully understand at any point in time that I have been involved in it. For company's of Exetel's size it isn't ever possible to devote the resources to obtain any sensible understanding of even the tiny parts of the industry that directly affect our small endeavours and we have to be 'content' to try and get a general idea of where the industry is heading so that we can make whatever meagre preparations we can to allow ourselves to continue to first remain in business and then, if possible, to continue to do a better job in all aspects of providing services so that we become more effective in meeting our overall objectives. At least that's the theory.
I don't know exactly how much of my personal time I spend on reading the industry media (mostly the overseas media as the Australian communications media is generally unhelpful) but it's between 10 and 15 hours a week. This time includes corresponding with various people in Australia and other countries about their personal views on a range of issues and replying to people who write to me on aspects of Exetel. I enjoy the continual challenge of trying to understand the likely changes of direction in terms of the technology that will happen and also the likely changes that various major influences on the market will bring about and how companies of Exetel's size can respond to and, if possible, benefit from them. So will 2011 bring any changes that will provide such opportunities?
I have my own views on what the opportunities may be in operating in marketplaces that are dominated by the 'defensive' strategies employed by all of the major providers - and by most/all of the smaller providers - but we are helped by the fact of our size and our ability to change quickly and move in any 'new' direction that seems to be the best thing(s) to do. On the down side we have been adversely affected by the meat axe wielding approach adopted by the largest companies in addressing their perceived problems over both 2009 and 2010. We were too slow to understand the problems these approaches would cause but we managed to survive and grow despite our late responses. The key question now is - what will the largest companies now do after expending so much money and effort to effectively remain where they were at the end of 2008? They have to do something more/better than they have done because they have no alternative future and that future is one where there is much less profit than the one they have operated in up to now.
And that, based on all the information I can find, defines the key situation - what does Telstra and Optus do over the remaining 11 months of 2011 to maintain (it seems unlikely that they can continue to grow at previous rates) their current market shares and profits. Obviously people much cleverer than I and with far more experience at both those companies will be providing answers to these twin problems and it is what they decide to do that will determine what every other much smaller company will have to do in the coming months.
Any ideas would be welcome.
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