Friday, August 27. 2010Time Flies When You're Time Is Not Your Own......John Linton ......and it is so easy to not only lose touch with reality but to live in complete fantasy. The year continues to speed by and 'it's almost Christmas' as Annette said in passing this morning. When your life is constrained by being heavily involved in playing a part in operating a business of Exetel's size it seems you never get a chance to do much else and there is so much to do that the year is almost over before it barely gets started. Annette's comment was because she had just booked the next review trip to Sri Lanka and having been caught up in the various activities for the family wedding last weekend having only recently returned from our annual holiday the last three months have disappeared without trace and by the time we get back from Sri Lanka in mid October the year, literally will almost be at an end. As any historian knows/proclaims, events can only be understood after enough time has elapsed after they have occurred for the context and results to be properly seen. The events precipitated by Krudd's attempt at Presidential Government in Australia where he (an individual of very little knowledge and no experience attempted to make all decisions about Australia's future himself) and their effects on the lives of all Australians will only become clear as time passes. One 'presidential decision's' effects are already becoming clear - his silly cover up of his ridiculous 'NBN1' - you remember? - fibre broadband for 98% of all Australians within 18 months of being elected for a cost to the tax payer of $4.8 billion Aussie? Well the 'back of the proverbial bus ticket' cover up for that major political nonsense has resulted in the destruction of the current Australian communications industry with no, current, sign that there will be any sensible replacement. I actually don't give a 'XXXX' about the morons who, with very little more knowledge than Krudd had, make comments about how feasible and beneficial such a ludicrous scheme would be - they also have less than no idea what they are talking about. Governmental decisions about major expenditures of tax payers money are meant to be based on need/affordability/deliverability and a detailed assessment of whether, even if the first three criteria are met, whether the expenditure of money is in fact the first priority above everything else that is needed to be done. Which of these four criteria do you believe was met? The answer of course is none. In the event that there was $A40 billion (or whatever the real amount actually is - it's a total joke that no-one actually knows what the cost will be) to be spent on major government funded infrastructure then can anyone think of what Australia's most pressing need is? Let me give you a hint: It certainly isn't immigration, climate change, new military toys, more taxation, or any of the other nonsenses trotted out by Sussex Street. The major threat to the future of Australia is.........water. I don't know how to get the over supply of water in Australia's North to the under supplied South but I think $A40 billion would at least make a start. Pissing away $A40 billion trying to build a network that no-one wants or needs DEFINITELY isn't going to make the top 100 investments Australia needs either now or in the future. Yet there is now the unedifying scenario where one or two people, who are even stupider and less knowledgeable than Krudd 'in charge' of making this decision - I refer of course to the Hayseed Mafia masquerading as the 'voice of Australia'. Has the whole world gone totally insane? Three country bumpkins whose claim to fame is they know how to pork barrel are now going to make a decision on Australia's available 'spending money'? I didn't think it would ever be possible to have a more stupid and vain glorious idiot than Krudd make key decisions about Australia's future. I was wrong. Much as I loathe and despise Krudd for his vapid proclamations and fourth rate mind I think Katter, Oakshott and Windsor and co make Krudd look like Einstein. I love country Australia but those three cynical wide boys are a disgrace to their origins. And what's worse - that apology for a woman - the screech owl - is so desperate not to become the shortest serving prime minister in the history of Federation she is agreeing to every crazy demand they make in exchange for their Judas support. It's time I called it quits. Copyright © Exetel Pty Ltd 2010
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Hmm. I think the real elephant in the room is population growth. If that was at a sustainable rate, then water wouldn't be an issue (The economy might be however if it's designed to work on everlasting growth, but everlasting growth has to end eventually, like ADSL...)
Comment (1)
I suppose the point of NBN really is that the copper network in Australia is aging - what do we replace it with?
Wireless services, on the face of it, seem like a great solution. The issue is, there is only so much bandwidth (in Hz) available through the air, a figure which is dwarfed by the quantity available via copper which is dwarfed again by that available for delivery via light. You may say that ADSL & wireless technologies are adequate for the average user. Right now, you're probably right. However, this usage pattern is going to continue to change. Mid-to-high range TVs now are being released with Internet-based connectivity options bringing streamed services like YouTube, ABC iView, radio, etc to the average user. A wireless network, even if its density was increased by a significant factor, would fall over with a few thousand video streams at 400kbps each in a single regional zone. This assumes providers & consumers of this content are going to be content with their low-quality versions of content. How long will it be before people start streaming 720p (> 2Mbps) and 1080p (> 4Mbps) content in 3D (x2 the bandwidth) in a way that is accessible to anyone? Again, you may say that the existing copper-based network could handle this, but speaking as someone who lives in a suburban area (the Gold Coast), the current copper-based network isn't suitable. Not only do I not qualify for ADSL2 on Telstra or other providers' networks, I am also lucky to max out my connection to 400KB/s to Australian servers - and this speaks nothing of the pitiful upstream capabilities available to me to make use of the many technologies to allow me to either communicate (video-conferencing) or work from home (requiring large amounts of uploaded data whether it be email, documents, source code or test data). So, given the existing infrastructure is very quickly becoming inadequate for most users, what do we replace this with? Do we build out the wireless network, increasing it's density, all the while, running out more fiber trunks to these new towers? Do we increase the connectivity and technology used at the copper 'node', rolling out more fiber to them along the way? Not to mention increasing the density of the nodes to decrease the copper between homes and the nodes? Do we replace the copper network with fiber? A technology that doesn't degrade at anywhere near the pace of copper cable. That continues to provide bandwidth capabilities that outstrip demand (1Gbps downstream and 100Mbps+ upstream available now for the last-mile connectivity - 40Gbps x 64 DWMP [with 100Gbps coming soon] over a single pair of fiber cables with regenerators throughout the network that aren't specific to the speeds being pumped through them using some interesting tricks of physics to increase single power). Sure, its a lot of money (or maybe it isn't... they haven't actually priced anything yet). But it is truly a future-proof option. We live in a world that is starting to provide access to higher-bandwidth content direct to its lay-man consumers. More and more bogans are going to demand access to their HD on-demand content to their living room TV and to their kids TVs whilst they download the latest magazines to their iPads, videoconferencing in HD to their relatives & friends. And they are going to do it whilst demanding that there be no slow-downs, huge usage bills and whilst their neighbours all do the same. Comments (2)
Wayne,
You use the word "we" a great deal in your post. If by "we" you mean the Australian electorate then you misuse it. Neither you, nor anyone else outside the major carriers have ever made any decision or ponied up any money about what sort of communications infrastructure is invested in in Australia. That is because: a) You/every other voter don't have the required knowledge to participate in such decisions and b) You/every other voter don't have the financial resources to implement any decision that is reached. You are also not asked for your opinion on which military hardware to buy for the same two reasons.... ....or any other investment/piss away conducted by the federal or State governments. By all means have an opinion but please don't use the word "we" - because when you use "we' you include me in that opinion and I have no interest in paying taxes so that dole bludgers and morons can watch meaningless rubbish on computer screens or destroy their own and other people's lives by playing on line computer games. Those are personal choices catered to by commercial organisations who will charge commercially realistic prices for doing so to such people if they can afford to pay for them. A government that has already plunged into massive debt supporting the Korean TV industry and the Scottish distilleries actually doesn't have any more borrowing capacity to fund a delusional pipe dream of a poorly educated ego maniac quasi dictator called Krudd who has confused communist command economic theory with Western free enterprise philosophies. Comments (2)
John,
I think you and I come from very different ideas of what the future is going to look like. I apologize for mistakenly sounding like I thought that the NBN itself being a government infrastructure project is a good idea or even going to happen at all, although one thing to note about the plans for the NBN is that it is to be implemented as a commercial entity whereby the organisation must be commercially viable and able to repay the loan for its development and to remain able to support itself ongoing. Is a government project the best way to implement this, probably not. I would favour putting the leopard budget out to tender an seeing what private enterprise could do with a $40b loan on reasonable repayment terms. The proposals for the $4b looked pretty good to me original. To make myself clear, I think the entire NBN, nigh the Labor government has been farcical in their handling of this project. Deciding that because private enterprise couldn't do what they wanted for $4b they should do it themselves for $43b. The trouble is, without something being done with the NBN or cancelling the project altogether, the communications industry will not make any significant investment on their own. What I was trying to argue (badly I guess) in my post was that Australia does need to have a plan moving forward. The demands on communications infrastructure will only get worse and any solution in such a geographically diverse country such as Australia is going to be both expensive and take a long time to implement. Wireless isn't going to cut it as a solution forever and someone needs to invest in physical infrastructure. Entertainment industries will always be the first to take advantage of new technologies because the emotional marketing used to get people to pay a premium for new, interesting ways to be entertained is easier and often has a higher margin than the greed/fear sell option available to sell to the corporate world, but these technologies always filter down whether it be BBSes to email or video on demand to online corporate training. It's hard to argue that our demands for bandwidth have increased and will continue to do so exponentially. Comments (2)
Irrespective of where we may or may not be coming from there are two major differences.
1) I deplore government interference in any form of commercial area. 2) It hard to deny that Australians drink more alcohol than in the past but, like downloading more from the internet, I don't see that a s a de facto reason to provide more of either - they are equally harmful to the unthinking who comprise the vast majority of users - I especially don't see any requirement for a government distillery, brewery or fibre network. If their is a need for any service then commercial entities will meet that need at a commercial price. If there is no need then no-one will bother. Until that hyper dill Krudd tried to cover up yet another of his stupid lies Telstra, and Optus, were going ahead with fibre on their own - no tax payer dollars involved. I can tell you that the Point Cook fibre is just fine and has a lot more people connected than NBNCo Tasmania. Comments (2)
I have never heard of an Independent being able to "pork barrel" anything - they just don't have access to the "trough" like those in the major parties.
I know Bob Katter. And he is an enigma - fancy a politician seeing himself as being elected to represent his electorate to Canberra. Standard party rules are: "representatives are there to keep the faith, toe the line, explain party decisions (but only when asked) and represent the Party to the electorate. Bob Katter asks: Why should we send water down south to the cities? Why not send some industries and population up here to where the water is.... and then the people I represent may survive..... even prosper. Not the words of a "hayseed mafia" type. Harry. Comments (3)
Ahh Harry....you have a very short and very selective memory.
Tony Windsor (used car salesman that he has always been) , as the price of supporting Greiner demanded, and got, the NSW bus contracts awarded to his mate in Tamworth and caused the closing, with huge loss of jobs, to the Sydney based company that had previously built buses for the previous 40 years plus. I may be wrong but that was his first act after being voted in as an independent for the first time. Comment (1)
Hi John,
Nothing to do with memory.... ... all to do with living in Queensland and not really keeping up with what happens down south (trips overseas and all that!). But isn't it wonderful what us Queenslanders have been able to do this last few weeks! (I'll ignore the fact that we also provided you with Krudd and Swan and .... gore blimey, I better stop now or you'll cancel my ADSL service, mobiles and other things . Best Regards, Harry. Comments (3)
"Bob Katter asks: Why should we send water down south to the cities? Why not send some industries and population up here to where the water is.... and then the people I represent may survive..... even prosper."
The problem is that the only people that voted for Bob Katter, but the hung parliament means that he will possibly be in a position to dictate government policy affecting the whole country. The sooner another election is called the better. Comment (1)
I doubt if that could ever happen.
... And I have known people who thought the same when Whitlam, Keating, Hawke and Howard were elected. ... and felt vindicated as time went on! Harry. Comments (3)
There are a lot of facts being mis-represented by the BLUE team, JL included.
The copper is aging and in so many locations, just not up to the job. Perhaps if we quadrupled the number of Telephone exchanges, then copper might be okay. As it is now, so many people can't get decent speeds for anything due to RIM, pair gain and other measures taken by Telstra as a "commercial" solution. The NBN will replace de-graded copper that is rotting in pits and ducts across AU -- it needs replacement, replacing it with new copper to start the decaying process again isn't going to be a reasonable long term solution, it is more of a band-aid fix. Only those in NEW estates like Point Cook will be able to enjoy NEW fibre ... forget anybody else in an ordinary older area or anybody not in a new housing estate. Back haul has been one of the killers for quite some time; many solutions exist, but a fully commercial solution hasn't gotten us very far to date. NBN1 was a proposal which required commercial spending, the GFC arrived, no commercial operators were up to the game or prepared to take reasonable risk to get things moving in the right direction. The whole landscape had to change, one way or another. There was no hope for a reasonable amount of spending by commercial organizations to get anything close to an acceptable "future" proof outcome. Total government expenditure on NBN2 is expected to top out at around $26 billion, of which much will be paid monies to workers undertaking the project (directly or indirectly) -- many thousands of workers, all paying taxes. At some stage commercial interests are expected to be able to stump up some funds to co-invest in the essential project. Now, of the monies that the government's company is to expend, most of it is over the next 4 years -- break it down and it sounds much more reasonable. The outcomes will be worth the cost many times over. The inability of past government to provide fair and level playing field says alot in itself. The project won't finish as quickly as many would like, but it is well under way and the government has little to do with the real works and management anyway -- NBN Co is headed by a great number of well educated and experienced industry people whom have proven thus far to be very capable bringing the Tassie NBN component online 10% under budget! The NBN, once complete, if it is allowed to continue, will see benefits for all of AU that will be game changing for some of the reasons already commented in this blog and for many other reasons not mentioned. Times have changed, should we all go back to dialup modems? I think not. The NBN2 has a commercial plan, but it takes a wholistic view -- which is less able to be achieved by the private sector without CSO (customer service obligations) enforced upon it via legislation. There are so many more things to consider, not least of all the fact that there are alternative views to JL's ..... whom ever says that John is always right -- his musings are here and they are, at times quite interesting, but I would like to see those BLUE blinkers come off from time to time Comment (1)
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