Saturday, April 17. 2010Looking In To The Future........John Linton .......not a pretty sight from what can be discerned through the fogs of obfuscation and the clouds of trepidation that fill the Australian telecommunications 'space' these days. I think the future became even more obscure yesterday when I read this set of comments: a few hours before we attended a meeting to determine how/if we would use the new fibre solutions that Telstra and the Federal Government will 'shortly' make available in some, initially very few in the case of the Federal government, locations in Tasmania. Telstra will, at least initially, make many more locations available than the 4,000 'residences' planned for the pre-Federal election 'launch' of fibre services in Tasmania which may have done a little bit of good by almost saving the State Labor Government in that State last month - though the negative swing augurs badly for such a hope for the Federal Labor Government. When Exetel established a PoP in Hobart it was always on the basis that it would allow us to connect to an 'NBN2' if that ever became a reality and thus allow us to offer higher speed broadband services at some future time because it seemed highly unlikely that Optus would provide land line services in that State and their likelihood of providing affordable wireless broadband looked equally dim. Once the Federal Government preempted any attempt at rational/commercial costing of delivering an 'NBN2' by committing to a blatant vote catching strategy of '"wiring the whole of Tasmania" in a bid to protect the five Federal seats in Tasmania it appeared to be a reasonable chance that they would have to deliver some sort of credible coverage before the next Federal election and, assuming that Labor got a second term that coverage might even turn out to be a reasonable chunk of the Hobart, Launceston and Devonport markets. It hasn't really turned out that way, reality has set in in terms of the time frames and difficulties of building and activating new infrastructures, but it appears, from recent press statements, that activation of fibre services will become a reality as of July 1st 2010 thus allowing Labor to go to the election that will happen shortly after that date claiming to have delivered on its promises of 'high speed data services'. Assuming Labor gets re-elected then perhaps over the coming three years 4,000 residences will become 40,0000 or whatever. If this does happen then, for the first time since 2004, it will be possible for companies like Exetel to compete with all other communications providers (including Telstra) on the proverbial 'equal footing'......at least in some areas of Tasmania. Unless Telstra has 'done a deal' with the Federal government before the end of June it will be interesting to see what transpires in terms of competitive pricing between Telstra's fibre data offerings and the pricing that will be offered by those companies that have signed up with the Tasmanian 'NBN2' Co at that time of which it seems there are currently three - iPrimus, InterNode and iiNet. Harking back to the cited article it will all come down to pricing for the fibre offerings of either organisation to be a success. Those public statements that it may be a very long time, measured in decades rather than years, for the 'NBN2' Co to make a commercial return (meaning realistic profit) is some sort of portent of how much tax payer subsidy might be needed over the coming "20 to 30 years" to bring that about which in turn would raise issues as to how Telstra would react to such a scenario. The only estimates of end user fibre pricing in Tasmania were published in the Hobart Mercury on March 16th 2010 by iiNet - and they were woefully unexciting to be as kind as possible - they can be found in the HM archives or on the Exetel Forums here: http://forum.exetel.com.au/viewtopic.php?f=288&t=35575 Of course they are merely a publicity seeking exercise and are unlikely to turn out to be anywhere close to what will actually be offered - but - as the only 'published' pricing they are totally unattractive - even including some sort of telephone voice capability. I would have thought that making any decision on plan pricing before Telstra comes up with their own 'NBN2' beater pricing is significantly premature although it would be a pretty safe bet that Telstra, even for a 'start up' service, will not make the pricing or the content particularly attractive.....but then Telstra have never found themselves in this sort of position before. Of course, while these gyrations are very important to Tasmanians, the real question is what 'NBN2' Co, Telstra and the ACCC come up with in any large scale pricing decisions over the coming 15 or so months. Based on the comments in the cited article that has just become far more interesting than it was. 10, 9, 8, 7.........
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Because 'options' are up in the air in Tasmania, I will shorlty be in the unenviable situation as to 'what the heck to do' as I'm in the process of selling, and then buying a new house. Do I cancel my Exetel ADSL1 8192 service or try to move it to new premises if I can time the selling and buying, which is unlikely?
I would prefer to go 'naked', but that isn't an option in Hobart, so I guess I'll just end up keeping my Exetel (Optus) wireless account and sitting on my hands for a few months. It would be so nice not to have to pay for a physical line in this state! Unfortunately Wireless downloads just arn't generous enough yet to forget about ADSL and the shackles of a physical Telstra connection. Paul Comments (2)
If you can get ADSL at your new house then you can simply relocate your current service.
I assume that Stage 2 of the 'NBN2' roll out doesn't cover your new house location? Based on the little that is in the public domain 'NBN2' pricing in Tasmania will be more attractive than ADSL1 pricing when it does become available. Comments (8)
"If you can get ADSL at your new house then you can simply relocate your current service."
That will depend on timing. But I think I will have to cancel my existing service first as the selling and buying are unlikely to sync up very well. I will have to investigate whether stage 2 will be available. But I don't think my wife will be too happy If I push for a particular suburb based on broadband options and availability. ;- Paul Comments (2)
Broadband availability is a very poor criterion for house selection.
I don't know what has been published about the areas covered in the next stages of the fibre roll out but it may offer some hope. Comments (8)
Does this mean that Exetel is going to sign on with NBNCo despite all of your criticisms of it.
Comment (1)
If a sensible service is made available to Exetel's competitors at a tax payer subsidised cost then Exetel would try to avall itself of the same commercial opportunity.
The fact that I oppose such expenditure of tax payer money in my capacity as a private citizen/voter has no bearing on following my private views to the detriment of Exetel's commercial operations. If we could, say, buy a 100 mbps service at a lower cost than a 10 mbps service then commercial logic dictates what course of action we would take. If we can't source fibre services in Tasmania from any other carrier at better costs than we could from 'NBN2Co' and we can reach a sensible supply contract with 'NBN2Co' then we would attempt to do that. Whether such a scenario is both possible and available to Exetel is unknown at this time. Comments (8)
Nah, makes him a pragmatist considering monopolies are by definition, incapable of cannibalizing themselves.
Comments (2)
Any business looks at new opportunities in terms of how they might benefit from them irrespective of their 'source'.
If the Federal Goverment is making such an offer then it would be sensible to see what is involved. Comments (8)
subsidised for a few decades sounds good to me, food for thought for Telstra
So far, much better than 8192.!384 is priced from the first monopoly a la.^ ,Good enough for me . . .Waiting in anticipation for Exetel, AAPT AND, *TPG*, to take 'Quotas' out of the nbn2 question. "Go the 'No Limit' ISP":P ..Make all your cases Loud and clear Comments (2)
"subsidised for a few decades"
Subsidised by taxpayer money. Hope your children are happy to pay higher taxes in the future so you can get faster broadband today Comment (1)
I don't know anything about what pricing models may become available in the future, or for that matter currently, for an RSP that connects to the 'NBN2'.
As it is a 'clean slate' service (for every RSP) it would be good to thing the 'old' stupidities of 'plan construction' don't carry over to the proposed fibre network - I would actually think that's a forlorn hope - but no harm in dreaming. Tasmania is a 'unique' place to provide data services because of the back haul costs for IP which are so much higher than in any of the mainland States. I would like to think that fibre plans will be simpler than ADSL plans but somehow I doubt that will be the case. Comments (8)
Along with offering residential fibre services might it be a good time to adjust the billing system so that those types of plans have 'anniversary' dates scattered across the month to help even out the load? In the future when/if the NBN rolls out it is going to be harder and harder to provide enough bandwidth for the start and the end of the month if you don't in my opinion.
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It may be time to look at doing that but there are many, many plusses to having only one bill date.
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I cant believe you are saying you will use the NBN after all you said about it.
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Not been keeping up with his blog? JL likes to sell stuff: computers, connections, magic boxes, /whatever/ the trend (he was a strategist for IBM). Makes him a happy chappy. i.e.I doubt thered exist feelings untoward any entity.
So time ticks on.~ wireless or not* . *Here's to both an affordable-&-widereaching FTTH. Comment (1)
The events of the week and a bit have so little to do with tasmania and so much to what wil evolve nationally.
The rumour of an agreement between telstra and the gov was a cynical leak to test the market response to a 9.2 to 9.7 billion agreement. ( the market response wasn't great, telstra up 3%) Next you have quigley with his 20-30 year nonviability for his nbn. Not exactly what conroy has been saying up till now! anyway this softens up the public to a settlement with telstra in the next week or two. My guess around 10.5 billion, telstra shares will rocket ( keeps 10% of the population happy and improves chances of rudd re election, the other 90% have been told that unless they want to be saddled with a nonviable nbn for 30 years they happily accept it.) The loudest complainers optus, well they are the sigapore government aren't they! As to all the other ISP get ready to really compete, your margins are just about to half! Comment (1)
Perhaps.
Assuming Labor gets re-elected this year then 'NBN2' wholesale pricing will continue for at least the next two years and, presumably, there will be a few hundred thousand - who knows, maybe a million end user premises serviced by the 'NBN2' by December 2011. If that becomes the case, and I realise its purely theoretical, then (assuming the ACCC allow 'NBN2'to use "promotional pricing" just as they have always allowed Telstra to pull that scam) then it looks more likely that Telstra will have the problems not the other RSPs. However I know nothing about the actuality of any of these issues. Comments (8)
You seem to be saying that Exetel will sell the nbn. Is that what you are saying.
Comment (1)
If Exetel can reach a sensible commercial contract to gain access to a fibre residential network in Tasmania then we would do that as we, currently, have no high speed options available to us and are unlikely to have any in the future.
Currently we have not got that option. Comments (8)
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