Monday, February 8. 2010The Future Is Always Going To Be Better......John Linton .....for the callow and uninformed.....what the reality is....the future is often different but seldom better. Whenever the Australian technology media writes about wireless broadband it invariably seems to include some sort of reference to the effect that "of course, wireless will never replace ADSL as the primary means of a residential user accessing the internet". No facts and figures or third party research are used to support this claim and, in fact, the only 'semi solid' research source (the ABS statistics) that contrast very large growth in wireless broadband compared to no growth in wire line broadband are usually unreferenced or dismissed as 'secondary connections'. I have often wondered why that is because all the 'facts' that I see (and I don't look very hard) are that wireless connections are increasingly replacing low end broadband as the primary or only internet connection in an increasing number of households. I will be interested in seeing what the December half year ABS report shows in terms of results for wireless and for wire line broadband when they become available later this month and even more interested in how the technology media 'treats them'. Exetels sales of wireless broadband services, while steadily increasing, do not shed any light on the situation though it's obvious from some rough and ready investigative research that some of our own low usage customers are moving from ADSL to wireless and there is little reason to believe that a portion of the new wireless users come from the same demographic. Our percentage of wireless applications compared to ADSL1 256 and 512 applications continues to increase and now exceeds them on a regular daily basis. The simple reason for that is that wireless broadband is lower cost than 512k ADSL1 and more than twice as fast - and getting faster (42 mbps now/84 mbps on the way): http://www.3gamericas.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=pressreleasedisplay&pressreleaseid=2643 When you add in the saving of no telephone line rental it becomes a financial no brainer. Every thing I see shows that wireless is continuing to grow at the expense of lower end ADSL and the desire for an increasing number of people to have mobile broadband is becoming more of a must than a desirable for a growing number of users. The sheer logic both financial and technological is so compelling why does anyone who gives it a moment's thought dismiss wireless and in the same breath laud the imminent delivery of the 100 mbps 'NBN2' which will be neither imminent nor 100 mbps? Now, for the increasing number of dummies who have begun reading this blog, please read each word, and its punctuation, in sequence so that you don't write me emails to the effect of "omfg you total loser u r so dumb you think the internet is for email" - spiced with your usual additional expletives. What I am saying is that some 50% of internet users don't use more than 5 gigbytes of downloads/uploads and that any speed over 512k is a bonus as their needs are very similar to mine (ie they don't include playing on line games, stealing other peoples property or anything else that requires large download allowances). Over 50% of Exetel's users use less than 5 gbytes per month in combined downloads and uploads and I would be surprised if the combined demographics of all other ISPs in Australia show anything much different - almost certainly less than 5 gbytes. Similarly few of that 50% have any current or immediate future plans to change their habits, or are able to increase their budgets, to move to something faster and with more downloads. These users are also, despite the derisory views of 15 year olds, are increasingly using VoIP as they realise how expensive it is having a land line and the call charges for a land line. The move to VoIP by this demographic isn't great at the moment but it is now there when a year ago it wasn't. Optus recent purchase of spectrum, the plans by both Optus and Telstra to test LTE in Australia this year and the ongoing build out of more HSPA infrastructure by all mobile carriers should, I would have thought, emphasised the growth of demand for wireless broadband Australia wide. Even without contrasting that investment with the slow down/halt in any new investment in ADSL dslam capacity or coverage for ADSL delivery it should be obvious that wireless broadband is increasing faster than can be explained away by 'new/secondary' usage. Maybe my understanding of the relative growths of the two technologies is completely wrong - but the facts I can find seem pretty clear cut. PS: Recent media 'exposure' of these random thoughts seems to have caused a very large increase in abusive posts - over 200 yesterday. I resent wasting what little time I have in reading enough of these moron's illiterate missives to delete them so, if the volume of crapulous nonsense persists I will have to deal with that situation.
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I for one hope the NBN2 fails, Everything I have read leads to the end of the copper network in australia, if they go through with it then Optus, Voda and Telstra are going to havee to focus on the wireless side of their businesses.
At the end of the day I would have to say that it would seem that the government is only creating a new monopoly with this new network, and we will all be locked into a crap pricing model and have no choice other then which "Reseller" we will go to. Comment (1)
Might I suggest "violating other people's monopolies" as a more accurate alternative to "stealing other peoples property", given that there is no theft involved and it is debatable if there is any property either.
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Most people find ways to describe their activities to avoid facing reality.
People who illegally obtain videos and music rob not only the rights holders but they rob every other person who buys the title legitimately. Illegal copyright title acquisition robs every honest person. I resent making financial contributions to such people's illegal activities simply because their parents were immoral and unethical and transferred their obnoxious views of life to their stupid and equally abhorrent children. Comments (7)
All towers need back haul.
Much of it is microwave at the moment. Comments (7)
Hi John,
Great blog I really enjoy reading it. After reading about LTE I too believe that the future is clearly wireless, i'm not an insider like you but I am assuming that LTE rollout would be far cheaper and easier than FTTH and if so what is the point of building FTTH when it clearly is going to be a giant waste of money for all parties involved. My question is will the LTE towers need to be running a fibre optic line as its backbone (e.g. you need to run fibre optic cable to the tower to provide the internet access) or will it transmit everything wirelessly? and if it does need a fibre optic backbone does FTTN make more sense? thanks John keep up the good work, Owen Comment (1)
John "I resent wasting what little time I have in reading enough of these moron's illiterate missives to delete them so, if the volume of crapulous nonsense persists I will have to deal with that situation."
This is unfortunate and understandably a waste of your time. I would like to return to Exetel, but cannot due to lack of ADSL2 DSLAM's at my exchange. I enjoy hearing your thoughts, as I'm sure many other non Exetel people do (and also Exetel customers who may prefer to read your blog at work etc). I hope you can find another way of dealing with the painful posts problem other than restricting your blog to Exetel IP's as you have mentioned before (maybe registering users?). Peter. Comment (1)
I am thinking of making my blog chargeable - to get rid of the morons.
If its worth reading then its worth paying for. If it isn't worth paying for then it isn't worth reading. That should cut the moron count to a minimum. Comments (7)
An excellent suggestion I would put my hand up.
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Thank you.
I was thinking of charging a $10.00 donation to a choice of wild life projection projects. What do you think? My estimate of the number of people who might be prepared to pay such a fee is around 250. I think if I made it $100.00 it would still be 250 but I only want to get rid of the morons....and I think $10.00 would do that. Comments (7)
I'm not against the idea of paying but I think access should be included for all Exetel customers (as an Extetel customer myself).
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We will probably do that.
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Believing Australians will be satisfied using applications with 'five gigabytes data up/down' per month, much beyond the present, is fanciful and predicated on really the TELSTRA and OPTUS's wishful dreaming. TLS & SGT are both due to have their offerings in the Perth marketplace 'reevaluated' by consumers very soon-when fresh competition comes to arrest their growth and bite them; and, deservedly - no amount of 24 month contracts based on absorbitant skim pricing (poor value in general) is going to save them in the long term from Channel7's plans... So they had better get a riggle on with their 'next G' plans (LTE tests) or face correction by the market.
Now I suppose it sparks some interest that quite such a percentage of users are indicated to neither use or require fixed line type quotas (for Exetel the "50% using under 5GB a month" being touted)...but while this is hardly ground breaking news it unfortunately carries with it some poor insight. First, You appear looking into a rear view mirror instead of the future that is VIDEO over IP and, including (but not limited to), Video conferencing - more taxing apps than VoIP a certainty. That CHANGES usage. Second, TELSTRA is to be found guilty--award an F for Fraudband's 'Failure' here: with people fixed to junk like "256 & 512 Kbps" we might at best stream podcasts. Of course no one will wait 3 (three) days to down a 5 GB paid movie here--NOT with 90 MB's an hour throughput rate--yet faster will cost considerably more than DSL2 does other subscribers. It's all a shame really, but my point is that much of Exetel' userbase "that 50%" would typically have been 'conditioned' to a www of 'Non-video' - and we're a backwater partly because of it. Third and lastly, our citizens may be 'under 5GB users' for obvious reason: "content availability". Which the Americans will complain over despite inexpensive access to netflix and broader programming via hulu, websites. Compare such alternatives against our "$1800 FOXTEL per annum" for which something like 1 million Households maintain a subscription - the biggest video outlet, yet still nothing close to 50% penetration. (To an extent our nation may be one 'less keen' to watch TV; but doubtful that explains our poor options) But...much of this WILL CHANGE...just as the ISPs start implementing Set Top Boxes & TV feeds, data usages will rise accordingly. SO.. even if you put those people who'd scarcely watch TV (some might limit themselves to a news brief/current affair/timeslot when they are eating/ others may have no TV/ geriatrics may have TV but no net) as high as at 20%.... the "50% use little data" figure may simply portray what is a real shortfall of "30%" who could be candidates for online TV, but just don't see it working over broadband (yet). I won't charge for the analysis Comments (2)
Time will tell - theory seldom triumphs over reality.
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There are many Australians that use wireless broadband as an additional home broadband service, allowing them the convenience of being connected to both the home and office while out and about or when traveling.
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Very true - the likelihood is that many 'homes' will have two broadband connections - both of them wireless - something that could never happen with ADSL.
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