John Linton (apologies to Admiral David Farragut for trivialising his famous words).
I had three meetings over the past week with major suppliers to Exetel and the message from them was mixed but on the whole opimistic. I never expect to be told the truth by suppliers (or perhaps by anyone else come to think of it) but, allowing for that, their views were pretty much the same as mine in that if there is a recession in Australia and worse to come then there is no particular evidence of it in the communications market generally - at least no evidence beyond the usual handful of telecommunications companies whos CEO's egos far over reach the realities of business common sense.
I also talked ith two people who are in the mobile business in the UK. That's a completely different story as these brief articles indicate:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/5292307/Writedown-adds-to-T-Mobile-speculation.html
and:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/5071650/Carphone-Warehouse-plotting-Tiscali-bid.html
Apart from illustrating the difficulties in the UK they also indicate the difficulties in other parts of the EU (Deutsche is the largest phone company in the EU dominating the huge German market and operating in practically every other country).
So perhaps the insouciance being shown by our Australian suppliers is simply due to the actual effects of an Australian recession not yet making any mark in Australia yet.
Hubris, egotism, crass stupidity in the behaviour of Australian Telecommunications CEOs has never been more blatantly obvious than in the resignation of Telstra's CEO and the Chairman whose total ignorance of telecommunicatins in Australia (and also business generally) who appointed him. I read El Sol's self aggrandising puffery 'hand over speech' yesterday with utter amazement as he self extolled his time as Telstra CEO as one long series of massive improvements and successes. There was no mention of the share price or the fact that, single handedly, he has driven Telstra to the point of imminent break up and the end of its cosy large monopoly.
Unlike American Civil War Admirals the 'torpedos' (mines) can't be ignored by Australian Telecommunication Company CEOs - even ones that run dominant monopolies and for every Farragut that runs and survives such risks there are 99 who dont make it past the first sand bar in their version of Mobile Bay. Without being pointlessly pesimistic, and bearing in mind that the teleommunications industry is generally regaded as recession proof ,Telstra's top management falling on their collective swords is the most obvious incidence of how recession itself and its affect on revenues/profits isn't the only danger in economic downturns.
Adventures like the ones in the UK mobile voice and data markets by huge foreign 'National Carriers' are just reminders to those who would ignore history that leopards changing spots only happens in mythology - it has never been known to happen in modern business. National Carriers that attempt to fight with the National Governemnts that created them is virtually unheard of and in the only previous incidence of which I'm aware 'ended in tears' just like El Sol'd has done - completely insane courses of action doomed before the initial words left his/his 'chairman's' mouth.
So too the other, minor, examples ocurring in the lower evels of the Australian communications industry's more egotistically run telecommunication companies - it won't be the "GFC" that brings their adventurism to a sticky end' it will simply be the immutable truths of commerce that have existed for over 4,000 years yet at least aparently, for too many 'business leaders' remain a closed and, presumably, never opened book - if you borrow in a boom you ill be unable to re-pay in a bust.
The UK events I alded too should case some of the more ridiculously articulated 'ambitions' stated over the past 12 months or so to be re-looked at by any boards that have any influence over the small telecommunications they have some duty of care for. If the Australian national carrier and the German national carrier (and a large Italian mobie carrier) can't make it in markets dominated yother entrenched poviders then it's a pretty clear indication that there are other things to do with any money and time you might have under your control.
Then again - 'there is a sucker born every minute' as a fearsomely successful con man once observed.