Tuesday, November 11. 2008Mobile Phone FuturesJohn Linton I've been using my shiny new Nokia N96 for just on three weeks now and over that time I've only made half a dozen 'cellular calls' with all the other calls being made using Exetel's VoIP over HSPA. In fact the only time I've made a cellular call was to test the quality difference between VoIP and Cellular to the same number with the person I was calling unaware of the difference. I will try the Exetel developed SMS over HSPA later this week (hopefully) as the release status of that service is now well into its beta testing and see if a complete mobilephonephobe like me can easily use it - from the 'demonstrations' I've been given it's a piece of cake to download the application and activate it. I'm wondering what this will end up meaning in terms of what the major mobile carriers will do in the future. My mobile call costs are now a fraction of what they used to be and, if I used SMS which I don't, the same situation would apply to that service. My Australian mobile to wire line calls which on the previous three months bills averaged two and a half minutes now cost me 10 cents instead of 50 cents and my mobile to mobile calls which average one minute cost me 15 cents instead of 30 cents (I get preferential mobile rates of course - no minimum spend, no flag fall and per second charging). I'm not sure how long it will take to get the 'final' version of SMS over HSPA fully operational but it isn't far away. Once that has been done we'll work on getting FAX over HSPA integrated in to the add on application suite for Exetel HSPA mobile phone users and then two other applications that we have some hopes for being useful and, temporarily, "exclusive" offerings. Personally, I can't tell the difference in call quality but I can notice the slight delay - which I soon got used to and after three weeks have adjusted to allowing for it without a conscious effort. My usage has been confined to the Lower North Shore of Sydney so my personal experiences have no bearing on coverage - just on VoIP quality.When/if we persuade fring or some other third party to install servers in Sydney that slight delay will almost 'disappear'. If we can't get that to happen we will more seriously consider writing our own application- not the preferred way of going but if we have to do that then we will. In terms of coverage, and specifically 'rural' coverage - Steve has just finished his 'field testing' of the HSPA service in 'country areas' of South Western West Australia and his results have been very positive and he details them on his blog here: http://steve.blogs.exetel.com.au/ It's, of course very early days for our implementation of the HSPA services (and the recent media reports about the withdrawal of the Optus Retail and Optus Virgin HSPA services is concerning) and we have not yet sold 500 HSPA services in this 'testing' phase of how to effectively market the concept and actuality of HSPA. It is going to be inevitable that the service will become faster and the coverage will increase for Optus, and the other carriers, over the coming year and more people will own HSPA capable hand sets. So what will happen to 'conventional mobile calls when HSPA handsets become 'universal' and more and more VoIP providers and hand set manufacturers make it easy to use IP voice, data and SMS calls at 10 cents a call and 5 cents an SMS? Allowing for the inherent 'Ludditism' of carriers generally over the years (they will do everything in their power to delay effective implementation of IP over mobile for as long as possible but that's now going to be only a matter of when not if) how will the carriers charge for mobile services when they are no longer used for 'conventional' calls and therefore the tariffs that they have used since the first mobile service was made available? I doubt that too many people understand how their mobile calls are charged to them at the moment but use the comfort of "caps" to allow them to ignore any likely inconveniences of thinking. "Capped" plans will almost certainly be the answer with a mobile service being charged as a fixed cost based on some amount of data usage formula or formulae. All this strange and convoluted call calculation arithmetic will become usage included/excess based megabytes of data? Phones are already slowly replacing other devices (though perhaps it's more accurate to say that mobile phone hand sets are morphing in to other devices) with voice cals declining as a percentage of use and being replaced by email/messaging/photo transmission and of course video calling. VoIP and SMS over HSPA simply illustrate the massive cost shift in how call costs have already changed for the tiny minority of users but the "size of a man's hand" cloud (First Kings - 18.44 - amazing what you remember form attending chapel every day for 12 years) on the far horizon may well be in fact the earliest indication of the 'perfect storm' that will blow current mobile charging plans (and hence mobile hand set acquisition plans) out of the metaphorical water. I'm sure every mobile carrier on the planet has developed their various different plans to make the transition for per minute tariffing to something else and I'm sure it will happen sooner rather than later but I'm glad I don't have to manage that particular transition. (especially if I'd planned to replace my now rapidly declining wire line revenues with far more profitable mobile minute revenues). Doubtless the carriers will cope - they own the infrastructures and therefore remain essential components of any future solutions. I wonder how the wire line resellers will cope (smaller companies who rely on wire line revenues such as Macquarie Telecom and PeopleTelecom and, come to think of it - AAPT and iPrimus)? I have enough issues to deal with without thinking about other people's possible concerns. Is it really going to be an IP over HSPA future for mobile voice telephone, and related, services?
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I'd love to switch to using HSPA and VOIP for mobile calls. However for my low usage I can't justify the initial purchase price of a suitable handset.
I'm hopeful that within the next 6 months suitable handsets will be available for under $200. That's when I'll make the jump. http://www.kogan.com.au/blog/2008/nov/3/kogan-google-android-phone-christmas/ cheers, Peter Comment (1)
You're absolutely right about hand set prices being a barrier at the moment.
However this will gradually change. Comment (1)
I currently have a c3 chip.
But I'd change to a m2 chip whenever hanset prices come down a bit. Getting one for under $200 would be a trigger for me. Even better if the phone could act as a casual HSPA modem as well! Comments (2)
I recently successfully tested and implemented VOIP calling over HSDPA.
Although I haven't got a compatible all in once device (ie: Nokia N series), ive been testing with XLite on a laptop with an Haweie E220 and a Primus Speedster plan with calls through pennytel. As you mentioned, the only noticeable difference is the slight lag - but this occurs on a regular mobile as well, and people have grown used to it. All in all it works well What im waiting for now, is a reasonably priced 3G Router to share the HSDPA connection. Ill then connect 2 separate services (probably leave the capped primus plan in a shared router) and sign up for an exetel PAYG account to keep for roaming with my laptop, and ill be able to cancel my home phone $20 and ADSL $50. Im pretty certain my HSDPA bill will under $70 a month - and at very least its more flexible (portable) and ill have a minium spend + usage, as opposed to a fixed cost that my DSL and Phone line has at the moment. It will be interesting times ahead, and my only real wonder how much of the speculation about the optus network is true - and if so how it will impact on things. These same setups would be some much less cost effective running over nextG HSDPA prices. Comment (1)
Good to hear and your experience and plans emphasizes that HSPA can, to use a much over used word, revolutionize how people use broadband and mobile voice services.
I'm as puzzled as anyone else about the disparity between the reported experiences of Exetel/Optus HSPA users and Optus and Optus/Virgin HSPA users. My 3 week experience has been flawless. Comments (4)
I now do almost all my 'on the road' calling using X-Lite and a USB handset attached to the laptop - while I wait for my e51 to arrive. (10 days and counting, grrrrr uniquemobiles.com.au) Works well most of the time, although echo for client end is still a bit of a problem.
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I think the echo must be caused by the set up as I, Annette and Steve, all have not experienced that problem and I haven't seen or heard that anyone else has reported it.
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Michael, if you are using the standard X-Lite it will be using G711 codec, the paid version allows G729 which is a lot more '3G friendly' might be worth checking out if you haven't already
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I was once told that the echo caused because the sound wave went through your skull as well as the microphone - hence the echo.
But I am still not sure if the "geek" was having a go at me!!!! Comments (2)
In response to your question
Is it really going to be an IP over HSPA future for mobile voice telephone, and related, services? Well it is clear to me at least that IP is the future for everything, telephony, television and Pay TV probably all moving to video on demand and almost certainly mobile as well. HSPA seems to be the best mobile medium at this point in time. There are some great HSPA plans coming out now, Yours being one and another today, a prepaid plan with a 12 month expiry. With the Google phone, great access plans it seems like it is all happening in the HSPA space. Hardware, software and access. Comment (1)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/12/2417537.htm?
Optus says net profit for the September quarter has increased slightly, boosted by a growth in mobile phone subscriptions. Must be all those iPhones. Comment (1)
I found this site interesting to read and collected some important information regarding mobile phone futures. To get more information regarding mobile phones visit this site.http://www.testseek.co.uk
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I realise that any new HSDPA plans won't be available until next year. When looking into the feasibility of new plans, could you consider something similar to 3's new 12GB 12months expiry prepaid plan. I understand you might not be able to match there pricing but I think it will have a high demand.
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Sorry, what I'm trying to ask is, if the customer was to prepay for larger amount of data (say 12GB) would you be able to offer it at a more competitive price? ie around $15 or less a GB.
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